Two days ago, a Saudi military spokesperson told AP that the kingdom is ready to send ground troops to Syria “to fight ISIS.”
That served as confirmation of what we’ve been saying for months and represented an affirmative answer to the following question that we posed in December: "Did Saudi Arabia just clear the way for an invasion of Syria?"
Four months ago, we previewed the “promised” battle for Aleppo, Syria’s second largest city, which is controlled by a mishmash of rebels and is one of the hardest hit urban centers in Syria. In October, Iran called up Shiite militias from Iraq, rallied thousands of Hezbollah troops, and coordinated with the Russian air force on the way to planning an assault on the city. Victory would mean effectively restoring Assad’s grip on power. So important was the battle, that Iran sent Quds commander Qassem Soleimani to the frontlines to spearhead a kind of pep rally prior to the assault.
Fast forward four months and Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah are on the verge of routing the Syrian opposition. After an arduous push north from Russia’s air field in Latakia, Aleppo is now encircled. Rebels and terrorists alike (assuming there’s a difference) are cut off from their supply lines in Turkey and Moscow’s warplanes are bearing down. Tens of thousands of people are fleeing the city ahead of what promises to be a truly epic battle.
Put simply: this is it. It’s almost over for the opposition.
That’s not to say ISIS isn’t still operating in the east. That, as we’ve said on a number of occasions, is another fight.
But the “moderate” opposition backed by the West and its regional allies is on the ropes. That’s why Saudi Arabia is floating the ground troop trial balloon. It has nothing to do with Islamic State and everything to do with making a last ditch effort to keep arch rival Iran from restoring the Alawite government in Damascus on the way to preserving the Shiite crescent and the supply line to Hezbollah in neighboring Lebanon.
Now, it’s do or die time. Either the Saudis and the Turks invade or it’s all over for the rebels.
And Iran knows it.
"I think Saudi Arabia is desperate to do something in Syria," Andreas Krieg of the Department of Defence Studies at King's College London, told AFP. He also notes that “the ‘moderate’ opposition is in danger of being routed if Aleppo falls to the regime.”
"Turkey is enthusiastic about the ground troop option since the Russians started their air operation and tried to push Turkey outside the equation," Mustafa Alani of the independent Gulf Research Centre added, underscoring Russia’s warning that Turkey may be preparing a ground assault.
On Saturday, Tehran openly mocked the Saudis. "They claim they will send troops (to Syria), but I don't think they will dare do so," Maj. Gen. Ali Jafari told reporters. "They have a classic army and history tells us such armies stand no chance in fighting irregular resistance forces."
In other words, Iran just said the Saudis are useless when it comes to asymmetric warfare.
Readers will recall what we said back in October: “... it’s worth noting that using Hezbollah and Shiite militias to fight the ground war decreases the odds of Moscow getting mired in asymmetric warfare with an enemy they don’t fully understand.”
In other words, Hezbollah has no problem engaging in urban warfare - they practically invented it.
The Saudis - not so much. "This will be like a coup de grace for them,” Jafari continued. “Apparently, they see no other way but this, and if this is the case, then their fate is sealed.”
Yes, “their fate will be sealed,” or, as Foreign Minister Walid al-Moualem said on Saturday, “I assure you any aggressor will return to their country in a wooden coffin, whether they be Saudis or Turks.”