For the past few months, we have been shown the massive crowds of millennials flooding Bernie Sanders rallies, and the dyed in the wool democrats who have been flocking to Hillary's. The narrative has been that the Democrats have really generated some enthusiasm this year that hasn't been seen in the past. We hear that Bernie is motivating a significant portion of the youth to put down the controller and get involved, while Hillary has provided a solid home for the more traditional democrats to go to.
As is often the case, however, propaganda is much different than reality. Despite what the media may portray, the fact is that democratic voter turnout is actually down significantly from 2008 (i.e. the last time a presidential race didn't include an incumbent). As Breitbart reports, millions of voters are sitting this election out that were involved in '08. Voter turnout for the Democrats this year has declined by a staggering 4.5 million voters, or 19%, compared to when Barack Obama was first taking the country by storm.
As Breitbart explains
Back in 2008, as Obama battled Clinton, a whopping 23,715,866 people voted in primaries and caucuses nationwide in the states that have already voted this cycle. Fast forward to the next time there’s a Democratic primary for president, this year (since Obama was the incumbent president seeking reelection the primaries in 2012 were largely perfunctory), and turnout has dropped off significantly. Just 19,155,825 people have voted thus far in primaries and caucuses this cycle, a decrease of 4,560,041 voters or 19.23 percent.
The steep drop off is so significant on the Democratic side that the vast majority of states saw drops in voter participation in Democratic primaries and caucuses. The following contests saw less voters participate on the Democratic side in the primaries and caucuses than 2008’s contests: Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Utah, Wisconsin, Vermont, American Samoa, Hawaii, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Nevada, Washington state, and Wyoming.
Only a handful of states have seen increases in participation on the Democratic side, including Arizona, Michigan, Alaska, Colorado, Idaho, Kansas and Maine. With the exception of Arizona, Sanders won—and Clinton lost—each of those contests. That means the likely Democratic nominee, Hillary Clinton, has only increased Democratic primary votes in one of the states she won this cycle as compared with 2008’s primary turnout. Every other state she has won this year has seen less turnout from last go-around.
The state by state comparison shows the drastic reduction in turnout.
This news may actually bode well for a potential Donald Trump candidacy, as he does seem to be able to pull people into the process that have sat out in the past. If Hillary can't do it in her own primary, there's a good chance she won't be able to do it if running against Trump in the fall.