As the make-or-break Indiana primary looms for the GOP establishment, Ted Cruz suffered a develishly-dismal day. First, as Gallup reports, Cruz's favorability has utterly collapsed in the last few days (blame Carly?) with 45% unfavorable to 39% favorable (a negative spread for the first time in his campaign). But it got worse, as not only does trump hold a commanding 15-point lead in Indiana, but the latest Rasmussen survey shows Trump (41%) ahead of Hillary (39%) for the first time as The Donald is now doing twice as well among Democrats as Clinton does among Republicans.
Republicans' views of Cruz are now the worst in Gallup's history of tracking the Texas senator. As Gallup details, his image among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents is at 39% favorable and 45% unfavorable, based on April 24-30 interviewing, for a net favorable score of -6. The last few days have marked the first time we have seen Cruz's image underwater since we began daily tracking in July.
The Ted Cruz Death Cross
In sharp contrast to the recent trajectory of Cruz's image, we find Trump's image on an upswing in recent days.
The remarkable aspect of this trend line is the degree to which since mid-April Trump's net favorable rating has moved steadily upward just as Cruz's net favorable rating has moved steadily downward. Cruz's image was consistently more positive than Trump's from July through the end of February; then the two closely tracked one another before the recent divergence.
But now, as Liberty Blitzkrieg's Mike Krieger details, regular readers won’t be the least bit surprised that Donald Trump continues to gain ground against Hillary Clinton in general election polling. As he recently wrote in the piece, Could Trump Beat Clinton in New York? Yes:
I continue to see Hillary Clinton as one of the most overrated political figures in American history, and Donald Trump as one of the most underrated. This is why I think “the experts” are wrong about the outcome of a potential Clinton vs. Trump showdown in the general election.
Hillary’s weaknesses are obvious. I’ve highlighted new shameless transgressions or scandals on these pages virtually every day for several months now. Furthermore, the fact that the grassroots campaign juggernaut known as the Sanders movement seemingly came out of nowhere, proves there’s a huge ideological vacuum on left just asking to be filled in light of Clinton’s neoconservative candidacy.
As far as Trump’s concerned, I’m of the view that his real genius is marketing and his tremendous force of personality. He’s not so much a brilliant businessman, as he is virtually peerless when it comes to selling himself to whomever he targets. While I don’t condone or respect such behavior, I do think a lot of what he said during the primary was carefully crafted rhetoric designed to appeal to a certain demographic in order to win the nomination. It worked. The fact that he knew exactly what to say, while most pundits kept expecting his frequent outbursts to bury him proves that he knew what he was doing, and exposed the pundits’ cluelessness.
If he ends up as the Republican nominee in the general election, he’ll analyze the American public as a whole, as opposed to merely registered Republicans, and he’ll campaign accordingly. Can he pull this off? If anyone can, he can. He’s a billionaire primarily because he is a genius at knowing exactly what people want and then selling himself to them.
With that in mind, check out the results from a recent Rasmussen survey:
Last week, Rasmussen Reports gave voters the option of staying home on Election Day if Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are the big party nominees, and six percent (6%) said that’s what they intend to do for now. Clinton and Trump were tied with 38% support each; 16% said they would vote for some other candidate, and two percent (2%) were undecided.
But Trump edges slightly ahead if the stay-at-home option is removed. Trump also now does twice as well among Democrats as Clinton does among Republicans.
A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely U.S. Voters finds Trump with 41% support to Clinton’s 39%. Fifteen percent (15%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
This is the first time Trump has led the matchup since last October. Clinton held a 41% to 36% advantage in early March.
Trump now has the support of 73% of Republicans, while 77% of Democrats back Clinton. But Trump picks up 15% of Democrats, while just eight percent (8%) of GOP voters prefer Clinton, given this matchup. Republicans are twice as likely to prefer another candidate.
Among voters not affiliated with either major party, Trump leads 37% to 31%, but 23% like another candidate. Nine percent (9%) are undecided.
Clinton’s narrow 38% to 32% lead among those under 40, traditionally a reliable Democratic group, suggests that younger voters will be a big target in the upcoming campaigning.
As Krieger so eloquently concludes, I continue to think Donald Trump is Hillary Clinton’s worst nightmare in the general election, and that the Democratic Party made a fatal error in pushing her candidacy.