As we noted first thing this morning, and as we, and others, have been warning since December, the passage of Trump's tax plan is conditional on the effective repeal (and/or replace) of Obamacare, which is set for a vote on Thursday. And yet, it was only today that the market, and the press, appeared to notice that the biggest threat for the market - a market which has long ago priced in the successful passage of Trump's tax cuts - is that Trumpcare may not pass not only the Senate, but also the House, which in turn would stall Trump's tax plan schedule well into fiscal 2018 (if not later) as the following Reuters headlines confirms: "Worries about Trump tax plan sink stocks."
And, unfortunately for Trump and bulls, despite the president's trip to the Capitol this morning, he failed to whip holdout Republicans. In fact, according to the latest NBC News roll call, there are at least 26 Republicans who as of this moment, 48 hours before the House vote to repeal Obamacare, are either opposed, or lean "strongly against" the health bill despite its recent revisions.
So, for all those who are looking for someone - or someones - to blame for today's selloff, which is shaping up as the worst of 2016, here is the list of 26 Republican house members who are jeopardizing Trump's entire domestic agenda. As a reminder, the GOP can only afford to lose 21. If the list below holds, Trump's biggest legislative push will be a failure on Thursday.
Furthermore, as The Hill reports, the leader of the House Freedom Caucus on Tuesday said there are still enough holdouts among conservatives to prevent the GOP's ObamaCare repeal plan from winning passage on the floor.
When asked if there remained at least 21 Freedom Caucus members opposed to the legislation, Mark Meadows (R-N.C.) replied “yes.” That’s the maximum number of defections House GOP leaders can afford to clinch passage of the bill in a vote planned for Thursday.
Freedom Caucus members said they’re still not convinced to get on board despite President Trump’s pitch to the GOP conference Tuesday morning. Trump warned Republicans that they could they could lose their seats and the entire House majority in 2018 if they fail to repeal and replace ObamaCare.
As reported earlier, Trump singled out Meadows at one point during the meeting, saying “I think Mark Meadows will get there too.” Meadows shrugged off the possibility he might face a primary challenger accusing for opposing the repeal-and-replace plan.
“I don’t know too many people that can challenge me from the right,” Meadows told reporters in the Capitol. “I believe that I’m representing them in opposing this bill because it won’t lower premiums and until it does I’m going to be a no even if it sends me home,” Meadows added.
Members of the Freedom Caucus met in the Rayburn House Office Building shortly after Trump addressed the GOP conference.
They left saying that their position hasn’t changed.