European Central Bank

It’s nearly that time again.

On the heels of December’s “big disappointment” wherein Mario Draghi cut the depo rate by a “measly” 10 bps and extended PSPP by an underwhelming six months, the ECB meets again next week, and this time around, expectations are low.

Despite the fact that markets have descended into outright turmoil, the ECB “is very unlikely to change its QE dynamics or cut the deposit rate at the upcoming meeting,” Barlcays says. “The earliest QE tweak opportunity for the ECB is the March meeting, if at all.”

It has been another choppy, illiquid, volatile overnight session, which started with weakness out of China, whose Shanghai Composite dropped 20% into another bear market in early trading, then further slammed by news of a terrorist attack in Jakarta, only to rebound back over 3000 as the Chinese National Team decided to intrevene again, this time in the ChiNext small cap index, pushing it higher by 5.6%.

On Monday, the Riksbank said it would “instantly intervene” in the FX market in the event ongoing krona strength ends up imperiling Sweden’s inflation target.

A week before Mario Draghi disappointed a thoroughly spoiled market by “only” cutting the depo rate by 10 bps, “merely” extending QE by six months, and failing to boost the monthly rate of asset purchases under PSPP, we explained why the ECB is effectively chasing its own tail. 

Earlier this month, Mario Draghi disappointed markets by failing to deliver an outsized depo rate cut and an expansion of monthly PSPP purchases. 

It’s not that the ECB didn’t ease. They did. It’s just that they didn’t ease enough, because when every DM central banker has gone Keynesian crazy (or, “full Krugman” as it were), a 10 bps cut doesn’t “cut” it (so to speak), and a six month extension of QE had been priced in at least since September.