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Atlanta Fed

Atlanta Fed Explains Why It Waited Until The Market Close To Reveal The Lowest Q4 GDP Estimate Yet

As we noted earlier, the Atlanta Fed waited until the market close to reveal its most dire GDP estimate yet: a paltry 0.6%, matching the 0.6% recorded during the "harsh winter" first quarter: one could be forgiven to think that during today's already chaotic selloff, the last thing traders and algos needed was news that US economic growth had ground to a virtual halt.

Atlanta Fed Waits Until The Close To Reveal 0.6% Q4 GDP Estimate

Atlanta Fed Waits Until The Close To Reveal 0.6% Q4 GDP Estimate

With less than half an hour until the close, we asked the Atlanta Fed - the most accurate predictor of GDP - which was scheduled to post an update of its Q4 GDP NowCast following today's ugly economic data, if it was was planning on releasing its latest Q4 GDP estimate before or after the close, something it usually does just before noon.

Atlanta Fed Just Slashed Q4 GDP Forecast To Barely Positive 0.7%, Down 1.2% In Ten Days

Just before the aborted Santa Rally took off in earnest, on December 23 the famous US economic growth prognosticators at the Atlanta Fed (famous because unlike Wall Street they actually are right) slashed its Q4 GDP forecast from 1.9% to 1.3% citing weakness in real consumer spending and poor existing-home sales.

Atlanta Fed Q4 GDP Forecast Tumbles To Lowest Yet, Sliding To 1.3%

Moments ago, after the latest disappointing durable goods report, the Goldman economist team was the first to cut its Q4 GDP forecast from 2.2% to 1.9% (and down from 2.4% yesterday), saying "the durable goods report implied weaker capital spending and inventory accumulation for the quarter; details on November consumer spending were also slightly weaker than we had projected."

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