The market is finally waking up to what we’ve been telling our clients since February...
That Trump’s economic proposals, particularly his tax reform plan, would not be hitting in 2017.
This is not a political statement… the reality is that the math is not there… and the swamp makes reform slow-going…
If you don’t believe us, here’s Trump’s Treasury Secretary confirming it.
Gold is resurging...
and bonds are bid (bond yields tumbling to their lowest since Nov 10th) after reports that The Pentagon is planning to shoot down North Korean missile tests.
Interestingly, there is no safe haven bid for the dollar, which is also tumbling to post-election lows...
Combined with commodities freefall...
it seems like every Trumpflation dream is being shattered.
Having held on to hope that the reflationary impulse would sustain the adverse series of events and geopolitical shocks over the past two weeks, RBC's head of cross-asset strategy Charlie McElligott is ready to throw in the towel, driven by what we have been pounding the table on for the past three months, namely the fading inflationary impulse out of China, manifesting itself most vividly in the recent crash in various commodities, and iron ore in particular, which has tumbled 30% from recent highs.
Many times over the years, what the stock markets do in Germany and Europe, impacts stocks in the states. Several times Germany has been a leading indicator in bull and bear moves, ahead of what take place in the S&P 500. Below looks that the DAX index over the past decade and the important pattern that could be in play.
Unlike the other big banks, Goldman's earnings release is a breeze: since the bank has virtually no balance sheet to use as a source of income (or loss), it is all about the income statement. And it was here that there was a big surprise, because despite expectations of a blowout result, with whisper numbers well above consensus estimates, Goldman unexpectedly disappointed, reporting Q1 revenues of $8.03BN, below the $8.53BN expected, translating to EPS of $5.15, fractionally below the $5.17 estimate, which nonetheless was 92% higher compared to EPS of $2.68 reported one year ago.