Business

There has been some confusion in recent weeks about one unexplained aspect of the rising market: just who is buying?

The reason for the confusion is not only the previously documented buyer strike by the smart money (hedge funds, institutions and private clients), which as we reported a few days have sold stocks for 11 consecutive weeks.

Then last night, citing the latest EPFR data, BofA reported that retail equity investors are now also "risk-off" following $6.2 billion in equity outflows from all regions.

When China reported its economic data dump last night which was modestly better than expected (one has to marvel at China's phenomenal ability to calculate its GDP just two weeks after the quarter ended - not even the Bureau of Economic Analysis is that fast), the investing community could finally exhale: after all, the biggest source of "global" instability for the Fed appears to have been neutralized.

We were wrong: several minutes ago when we documented the collapse in the Gallup Economic confidence, we said that "we look forward to the UMich confidence report to beat expectations when it is released in just a few minutes." Moments ago the official print came out and it was not pretty: sliding from 91 to 89.7, not only did the print miss expectations of a rebound to 92.0, but was the lowest print since September 2015, as well as the fourth consecutive drop.

According to the latest Weekly Economic Confidence poll released by Gallup, Americans' confidence in the US economy is getting worse. The poll asks people to rate the economy as of today, and whether or not the economy as a whole is getting better or worse.

The US economy has never - ever - seen Industrial Production drop YoY for seven months in a row without being in a recession. Down 2.0% YoY in March, the weakest since December and down 0.6% MoM (weakest since Feb 2015) the decline in factory output is driven a 1.6% plunge in vehicle production (2.8% collapse in motor vehicles specifcally) in March. This 1.76% drop is the worst for a March since 2008.

As The Fed details,