Business

By Andrew Zeitlin of SouthBay Research

March NFP 215K: Retail stick-save as Signs of Weakness Pick Up

A broadening Industrial recession was offset by solid service payrolls, led by Retail. Taken at face value, the breadth of growth signals a steady-as-she-goes economy.

But there are reasons to doubt the figures, starting with Retail. In the BLS model, retail is hitting a major growth spurt unlike anything seen in a decade.  In the real economy, the Retail sector's growth is slowing.

When last we checked in on the 1MDB saga, Goldman was busy tying up a few loose ends.

Tim Leissner, the banker who built the firm’s Southeast Asia operation from the ground up and the man behind a series of questionable deals that funded what would eventually become Malaysian PM Najib Razak’s personal slush fund, was essentially forced out in January, after bank investigators uncovered what they said was an unauthorized reference letter.

In March the US economy added a healthy 215K jobs, beating expectations and more importantly, pushing the average hourly earnings up by 0.3% on the month. Which, however, is curious because a cursory look at the job additions in the month reveals that nearly two-third of all jobs, and the three top categories of all job additions, were once again all minimum wages jobs.

Via Mint's Bill Blain's Morning Porridge,

”A common mistake when trying to design something completely fool-proof is to underestimate the ingenuity of complete fools..” 

Following China's miraculous PMI jump back into expansion, Markit reports US Manufacturing also rose to 51.5 in March (despite the biggest drop in manufacturing jobs since 2009). As Markit details, output growth is unchanged from February’s 28-month low, and prices charged decline amid further drop in input costs. ISM Manufacturing also jumpedfrom 49.5 to 51.8 - the first 'expansion' in 7 months.