Business

The volatility in crude oil trading has reached the highest levels since Lehman's systemic crisis in 2008. Intraday swings of 5-10% are now de rigeur with OPEC and geopolitical headlines jockeying for narrative amid collapsing fundamentals.. but there is another, much bigger driver of this sudden chaos. As Reuters reports, the sudden liquidation of a $600 million triple-levered fund bet on falling prices wreaked havoc through the entire crude complex.

Intrday volatility in oil has been incredible to say the least...

The one catalyst many Glencore bears have been eagerly waiting for, is the downgrade of the troubled independent energy trader to junk status, a catalyst which as previously explained, will likely spring various, heretofore unknown margin calls and collateral "waterfalls" a la AIG.

• CNN reports the US running out of space to store oil.
• At the same time, OPEC actually ramps up oil production...

 Many "smart guys" allege that the drop in oil is bad for the ecomomy. I call BS. Oil prices are an input costs. Input costs are what strip revenues down to profits and potentially losses. The lower the input cost, the higher profit. What has occured was a decades long credit bubble that fueld a profligate binging on debt.

The Fed may "seriously consider" negative rates after moving rates back to zero, reintroducing forward guidance and making "stronger pleas" to Congress for fiscal policy action as there are complications for money markets, according to BofAML strategist Mark Cabana.

This would not be a total surprise as Mises Institute's Joseph Salerno warns recent Fed commentary suggests they want to test-drive negative interest rates...

As this website exclusively reported three weeks ago, under explicit guidance by the Dallas Fed and associated regulatory pressure, US lenders have been instructed to not only not accelerate energy company counterparty defaults but to suspend energy loan book MTM entirely in distressed cases to avoid contagion concerns.

Questionable marks notwithstanding, in their fourth quarter earnings reports and conference calls banks had no choice but to reveal what their existing "publicly appropriate" exposure to oil and gas companies looks like.