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Headlines about "oil production cuts" are the new "Greece is saved" trial balloon.

Following today's dizzying surge in crude oil on speculation by the Russian energy minister that the Saudis have proposed a 5% supply cut, which was subsequently trimmed to merely a statement that a "meeting may be called where a production cut could be discussed" we asked how long until the denial:

What time is the Saudi denial?

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) January 28, 2016

We have consistently been making the contrarian call for a falling silver price and a rising gold to silver ratio for years. This ratio has risen a lot during this time. So are we ready to change our call yet?

Review of Our Call in 2015

Headline hockey continues in the energy complex as earlier confirmation of a pending OPEC meeting possible in February has seen more color added, via Reuters, that Saudi Arabia made a proposal that OPEC members cut production by a maximum of 5%. There remains confusion however as Bloomberg reports simply that Russian energy minister has said they "may discuss it," as opposed to being a specific proposal.

Reuters seems confident that The House of Saud has backed down and prosposed the cut...

Durable Goods Orders crashed 5.1% MoM and turned back negative YoY and ex-transports continues to deteriorate YoY flashing if nothing else a recessionary environment is upon us (if not an actual recession). However, it is in the core - non-defense ex-aircraaft - segemnt that we see the real bloodbath as shipments plunged and new orders collapsed 7.5% YoY - the "worst since Lehman." Of course we still have bartenders and waitresses to maintain the US economy so this is just transitory weakness in the stock market's most-dependent segment of the economy.

Submitted by Nicholas Colas of Convergex

Three Fed Thoughts, One Conclusion