Yesterday, in the aftermath of the shocking news that the Third Avenue Focused Credit Fund was liquidating and had gated investors due to its "illiquid" portfolio, we had one simple prediction:
Four months ago, China decided to devalue the Yuan sending a shudder up and down collateral chains globally and forcing carry trade unwinds and derisking everywhere. Friday August 21st saw notable weakness as that weakness washed ashore in US equities.. and then Black Monday struck. The ensuing debacle stalled The Fed and shocked markets.
The last week, we have seen China devalue the Yuan very significantly, EM capital markets turmoiling, and today, that was ashore in US equities... what happens next?
Deja vu?
Submitted by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,
While the world patiently waits for Janet Yellen to raise interest rates this month, the markets have been unable to decide as of yet whether such an event is good or bad thing.
One month ago, when Austrlia released job numbers that too ridiculous to believe - they were a 6 sigma beat - the local mainstream media - very much unlike that of the US - threw up all over the numbers.
This is how Australia's primary media outlet, ABC, slammed the number with the following excoriating reaction of the economic propaganda, which would certainly have been censored in the US.
A fall in the unemployment rate from 6.2 per cent to 5.9 per cent in the space of one month? Be sceptical. Treat with extreme caution.
On June 29, 2006, the Fed did something it would not do again for (at least) nine and a half years: it hiked rates by 25 basis points, its 17th consecutive rate hike. Everyone knows what happened after.
On December 16, 2015, the Fed is expected to do something it hasn't done for 3,457 days: hike rates by 25 bps, ending the longest period in US history (84 months) of zero interest rates.
How has the world changed in the interim? Some quick observations from BofA: