"When To Worry?": How Long After The Curve Inverts Does The Recession Begin

The recent (bear) flattening of the US yield curve to levels not seen since before the GFC, a move which has only accelerated in recent weeks as the stock market hit all time highs, has prompted some to question the strength of the US economic cycle, and others to ask outright how long before the curve inverts, signaling an imminent recession. Here, as Citi's Jeremy Hale notes, just as "Dr.