How Europe and France’s stock markets perform can have a huge influence on stocks in the states. The first two charts below look at the FTSE 100 from London and the CAC 40 from France.
CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE
Something has changed...
For months high yield bond yields have been compressed alongside rising stock prices as the flood of global liquidity from central banks.
ECB buying has driven European junk bond yields below those of US Treasuries and in turn that has pressured global high yield risk lower - despite a rise in leverage to record highs.
However, the last two weeks have seen a big shift in flows as investors have fled high yield funds and pushed into investment grade and Treasuries.
The overnight fireworks in Japan, which saw the Nikkei plunge by 860 intraday points and sent vol and volumes soaring (before recovering most losses), spooked traders in Asia and around the globe, and U.S. equity futures are red this morning, along with European shares and oil.
Something snapped in Japan today.
Having successfully pulled off the announcement of the ECB’s “dovish taper” – where monthly bond purchases will be halved to Euro 30 billion from January 2018 – last month, a challenge for Mario Draghi in Q1 2018 has appeared on his radar. The ECB’s bond buying ammunition is slightly less than analysts thought and there is the small matter of the looming Italian election. The latter is likely to be held in March 2018, although it could take place as late as May. Veteran strategist, now Bloomberg columnist, Marcus Ashworth explains in "Italy's Shrinking Safety Net".