"Risk Of Meaningful Decline": The TBAC's Disturbing Normalization Slides

As part of the Treasury's Q3 refunding announcement, which as discussed earlier sent 30Y yields to session lows after it failed to either boost upcoming debt issuance or mention ultra-long dated bonds, the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee or TBAC, a select group of bankers from Wall Street's biggest firms tasked with providing periodic guidance to the Treasury, released its latest presentation, whose topic this quarter was "Normalization of SOMA Portfolio", or a breakdown of i) how Wall Street expects the Fed's balance sheet reduction will play out from a chronological and structural b