China

China vowed that this time it was serious about finally deleveraging its economy. Once again, it lied.

First, a quick tangent: as a reminder, when it comes to the global economy, increasingly more analysts are realizing that just one number truly matters: that of the global credit impulse, which as we cautioned for the first time two months ago, had recently turned negative, mostly as a result of the recent deceleration in China's credit creation.

While Donald Trump already spoiled the surprise of the contents of the latest semiannual report from the Treasury on currency manipulation, when on Wednesday he told the WSJ that China would not be named a currency manipulator, moments ago the US Treasury confirmed just that when it published the long awaited report on "Foreign Exchange Policies of Major Trading Partners of the United States" which while keeping the same six countries - China, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Germany, and Switzerland - on its manipulation monitoring watch list, it said no major trading partner met the criteria

The following article by David Haggith was first published on The Great Recession Blog:

The Korean missile crisis has never been hotter. Trump is turning the screws on everyone to force action. China, Japan, and South Korea join in threatening Kim Jong-un with imminent war, but North Korea’s crackpot despot isn’t backing down.

Over the weekend, New River CIO Eric Peters had a simple and concise summary for events over the past year: "Pretty much everything that happened in 2016 can be explained by two things; China and oil prices,” he said. “Literally, that’s it."

Today, thanks to a research report from UBS titled "Where is the epicentre of the reflation trade?", we have confirmation that Peters was spot on.

S&P futures extended their Wednesday decline, dropping in the overnight session with banking shares in focus ahead of results from JPMorgan and Citigroup. European stocks likewise retreated along with the dollar, while Asian shares were mixed.