Via GEFIRA,
If London decides to leave the European Union nobody in Europe will even notice. Great Britain is an entirely separate country, isolated from the European Union and does not participate in the Euro or Schengen Agreement. The European Union as a political platform is disintegrating and becoming more and more irrelevant and will be displaced by the European Monetary Union (EMU).
"I was here till 5 o'clock this morning working through this and we've made some progress but there's still no deal.”
That’s from British PM David Cameron, who was apparently up all night in an effort to understand why his country should stay in the EU. Unless Cameron hears what he wants to hear, he will not campaign for the UK to remain in the bloc ahead of an expected referendum on membership in June.
Not even this morning's mandatory European open ramp has been able to push US equity futures higher, and as a result moments ago the E-mini hit session lows on rising concerns about Brexit as talks drag on in Brussles, but mostly as a result of overnight confusion about China's loan explosion and whether the PBOC has lost control over its maniacally-lending banks.
Amid today's summit and Cameron's looming pitch to The Brits, the market is starting to take the risk of UK's exit from the EU seriously...
Various indicators across markets can be used as a 'sentiment' guide for fears (or hopes) about BREXIT, but, as MacroMan notes, perhaps the simplest and cleanest is the 3/6/12 month implied vol butterfly in GBP/USD, given that the referendum is widely expected for June, a little over four months from now.
MacroMan continues,