France

With events in France developing fast and furious, and with Le Pen either leading (for now) according to official French ministry data, or in second place according to exit polls, Citi's Fraser King asks: "Is this the end of the two-party system in France."

More from Citi:

If results stay as polls suggest, with Le Pen and Macron in the second round, it will be the first time in the history of the ‘fifth’ Republique, that one of France’s two major parties will not be present, marking a monumental change in the French political landscape.

 

After months of anticipatory build up, voting is underway in France on Sunday in the first round of a bitterly fought presidential election that is seen as crucial to the future of the Eurozone, and a closely-watched test of voters' anger with the political establishment.

Local polling stations opened at 0600 GMT and will close at 1800 GMT, with about 47 million voters expected to cast their ballots in around 67,000 polling stations amid a high terror alert.

Ahead of Sunday's first round of the French election, we have previously provided several perspectives on the political and economic outcomes, including a permutation matrix of all six possible outcomes in terms of "high" vs "low market risk" (from BofA), why the market may be too complacent about a Le Pen - Melenchon result (candidate approval variance is within the polling error), and that European stocks have completely failed to price in any adverse outcome (as DB observed yesterday).

France holds the first round of its Presidential election this weekend.

The big worry for the markets is the fact that anti-Euro candidate Marin Le Pen could potentially win.

Now, the polls show Le Pen as having NO chance of becoming Prime Minister. 

Of course, the polls also showed that BREXIT would not happen and Hillary Clinton had a 98% of becoming President.

We all know how those turned out.

President Trump tweeted on Friday morning that this week's "terrorist attack in Paris" will have "a big effect" on the country's presidential election set for Sunday.

Another terrorist attack in Paris. The people of France will not take much more of this. Will have a big effect on presidential election!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) April 21, 2017