Labor

For the second week in a row, initial jobless claims rose (up 6k to 278k) but remain flat at 42 year lows for the last year. Challenger job cuts rose 21.8% YoY (and yet initial jobless claims are lower still YoY. The problem with this 'data' is that employment signals from both manufacturing and services PMIs are entirely divergent...

Still it keeps The Fed's recovery narrative alive, so just hold your nose and buy the f##king dream.

British workers will have to work until they are 81 if they want to build up savings that guarantee their parents' standard of retirement, according to a new study by pension provider Royal London. Without significantly higher levels of engagement in pensions, the report concludes rather ominously, "we may be witnessing the death of retirement."

As AP reports,

In addition to noticing the diminishing impact of the weather (there were 26 instances of "weather" in the January beige book, down to 17 in March), one thing that caught our eyes about the Fed's March Beige Book was three odd mentions of the "stock market"(compared to zero in January) which was blamed for everything from concerning business responses, to slowing new leasing activity, to lack of activity, to wit:

After surprisingly jumping in December, ADP's employment report fell back to a more normal 200k ish level in January and now in Feb it rises once again to 214k (from 193k in Jan - revised down from 205k - and better than expectations of 190k). Manufacturing jobs, according to ADP remain relatively flat for the last year (down 9k in Feb - the second largest drop in 5 years), despite a collapse in ISM Manufacturing's Employmet index.

The House OF Lords have rebuffed Tory plan to cut Employment and Support Allowance (ESA) for second time. In January peers voted to remove the cuts to ESA from the Welfare Reform and Work Bill, but MPs in the Commons reinstated the measure. On Monday, the Lords defeated the government again over welfare reform and work bill proposals to cut £30 a week from the benefits of ill and disabled people who have been found unfit to work.