Ahead of today's key economic release, the US Q2 GDP number due at 8:30am ET, here is what some of the key players expect, via RanSquawk:
A more detailed preview and market reaction courtesy of the analysts at FX Daily.
While investors pile into Tech Stocks based on endless promotion from the financial media, the US economy is rolling over.
Last week the NY Fed downgraded its economic forecast for 2Q17 to just 1.9%. Even worse, it is now forecasting 2017 total growth to be a measly 1.5%.
Yes, 1.5%.
There is a clear trend to this chart… and it’s NOT up.
Source: NY Fed
Wait, it gets worse.
The Citi Surprise Index has collapsed to levels not seen since 2011.
Source: Yardeni Research
Why does this level matter?
In short, buy stocks.
Remember that 2011 NY Fed study which found that since 1994, a stunning 80% of all equity returns on U.S. stocks were generated over the twenty-four hours preceding scheduled Federal Open Market Committee announcements, a phenomenon called the pre-FOMC announcement “drift.”
Total debt held by US household reached $12.73 trillion in the first quarter of 2017, finally surpassing its $12.68 trillion peak reached during the recession in 2008 according to the NY Fed's latest quarterly report on household debt. This marked a$479 billion increase from a year ago, and up $149 billion from Q4 2016 after 11 consecutive quarters of growth since the deleveraging period immediately following the Great Recession.
the quick and durty breakdown:
After the best quarter for US stocks since 2015, global equities have started off Q2 on the right foot, despite caution about the upcoming meeting between President Trump and China's Xi Jinping later this week, and Fed Minutes which are expected to be more hawkish than the FOMC statement.