oil prices

As it deals with the economic slowdown and a plunge in oil prices, Norway has turned to its massive sovereign wealth fund in order to cover 2016 budget deficits, in continuation of a trend noted here first last October. As Bloomberg reports, the country withdrew $898 million in March from the fund, putting the year-to-date total at roughly $3.1 billion, a run rate that is higher than the estimate the central bank governor gave just this past February.

Submitted by Gail Tverberg via Our Finite World blog,

Oil production can be confusing because there are various “pieces” that may or may not be included. In this analysis, I look at oil production of the United States broadly (including crude oil, natural gas plant liquids, and biofuels), because this is the way oil consumption is defined. I also provide some thoughts regarding the direction of future world oil prices.

Back in late 2014 and early 2015, this website soundly mocked any and every economist that suggested that plunging oil prices - in a globalized economy where oil has been financialized beyond recognition and impacts every asset class, the stock market, global trade flows, and international diplomacy - is "unambiguously good." 

Submitted by Nick Cunningham via OilPrice.com,

Since February, major investors have predicted that oil prices were poised for a huge rally. Hedge funds and money managers piled into bets on rising oil prices, going long on the crude rally.

Short sellers were squeezed, and the stampede become too much for many, resulting in a large liquidation of shorts. The short selling drove the rally, increasing oil prices by about 50 percent since early February.

For the past month, despite the biggest quarterly bounce back from its lows in Dow Jones history, the market skepticism has not only remained but intensified: JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank, SocGen, all have warned that this is a sucker's "bear market" squeeze, not the start of a real rally. Techniclans have been just as vocal in their skepticism, while the smart money has been selling relentlessly (not in its 8 consecutive week - more shortly).