By EconMatters
A nice $2 bullish move into the close surprised a lot of shorts who focused on the Cushing inventory builds, but missed that gasoline demand is moving oil higher as we move into the summer driving season ramp up.
We have joked about it in the past: with equities around the globe all correlating tick for tick with the price of oil (supposedly "lower oil is good for the economy", just don't tell that to the stock market), instead of doing piecemeal interventions and monetizing stocks, something which as even Citigroup has noted no longer works, what central banks should do instead is monetize the source of all market problems: oil itself.
We first joked last January that the ECB should do it...
Yesterday, during his speech at CERAWeek in Houston, Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi made it explicitly clear that Saudi Arabia would not cut production, instead saying that it is high-cost producers that would need to either "lower costs, borrow cash or liquidate” adding that there is "no need for cuts as marginal barrel will get out of the market." He was right.
While the prevailing dour (or perhaps sour) overnight mood was a continuation of the weak oil theme which started yesterday after Iran said the production freeze proposed by Saudi and Russia as "ridiculous", and Saudi oil minister Al-Naimi said that Saudi won't cut supply and that high-cost producers need to either "lower costs, borrow cash or liquidate” (ideally the latter), risk sentiment was further dented when BOJ Governor Kuroda says he won’t target FX rates or stocks, which is clearly nonsense, and further spooked Japanese asset prices (Nikkei -0.85), while s
Submitted by Charles Kennedy via OilPrice.com,
This is a financial cold war - nothing more, nothing less.
While there are billions of reasons to cut output, and every major producing country is reeling from the loss of revenues, some are weathering the current bust better than others, but the devil is in the details, and the details contain tons of variables.
Production cost and breakeven figures that analysts enjoy bandying can trap you in bubble of black-and-white mathematics that is a few brush-strokes shy of a full picture.