Organization of Petroleum-Exporting Countries

Crude prices are lower this morning following API's huge reported build at Cushing (biggest since 2008) and fears over OPEC deal realities. With expectations for a crude draw (on lower imports), DOE confirmed a bigger than expected overall draw but also Cushing saw a 3.78mm barrel build - the biggest since Jan 2009. Both Distillates and Gasoline (most since Jan) also saw bigger than expected builds as US production dropped very modestly.

API

Submitted by Nick Cunningham, via OilPrice.com,

OPEC succeeded in pulling off what many thought was impossible, overcoming mutual disdain and mistrust to reach a deal on reducing its oil output. Oil prices skyrocketed on the news, up more than 12 percent since the agreement was announced last week. But what if there is much less to the deal than meets the eye? What if OPEC does not actually follow through on the promised production cuts?

Submitted by Irina Slav via OilPrice.com,

OPEC’s historical deal to cut production has been sealed, and oil prices have jumped as a result, comfortably above the $50 per barrel mark. According to Lukoil’s vice president, Leonid Fedun, the average price of crude in 2017 could reach US$60 a barrel, thanks in no small part to that agreement.

According to some observers, the effect won’t be so noticeable, and prices will continue to hover around US$50.

The greatest trick OPEC ever pulled was convincing the world to buy oil even as production kept rising to new all time highs. Case in point, just out from Reuters:

Less than two months ago, after the Algiers meeting but before the Vienna OPEC summit when speculation was rife that the cartel would be unable to reach a deal to cut production, we reported that "US Oil Producers Are Hedging At Levels Not Seen Since 2007" in which we wrote that "while OPEC has been busy desperately jawboning oil higher, US producers have been worried about oil's reacquaintance with gravity. As a result, as the EIA reports, the amount of WTI short positions held be producers and merchants is just shy of a decade high."