Organization of Petroleum-Exporting Countries

After Sunday's latest meeting between OPEC and non-OPEC countries in Vienna, energy ministers struck an optimistic note regarding the recent agreement to cut oil output as a committee set to monitor compliance with the deal meets for the first time. Oil producers said they are in "total agreement" on the mechanism for monitoring pledged output cuts, Kuwait Oil Minister Essam Al-Marzouk told reporters after the committee ended its meeting in Vienna.

While a desperate Saudi Arabia jawbones how well OPEC production cuts are going, the road ahead looks like a surge in US Shale supply is coming. Following a brief dip in the previous week, US oil rig counts soared 29 to 551 last week - the biggest weekly rise sicne April 2013 - to the highest since Nov 2015.

*U.S. OIL RIG COUNT UP 29 TO 551 , BAKER HUGHES SAYS :BHI US

Which signals to OPEC that more production is coming...

And WTI prcied are leaking lower...

Following a brief spike overnight (as China intervened in its equity market), crude prices slipped lower, testing towards a $51 handle after Saudi Arabia says OPEC is on track to wrap up its production curbs by the middle of the year, potentially leaving its aim of clearing a global oil glut unfinished.

Submitted by Emad Mostaque via GovernmentsAndMarkets.com,

Oil prices have risen over 20% since the OPEC production cut agreement at the end of November. While concerns abound on quota cheating and increased production from Libya, Nigeria and US shale, the incoming US administration could change the market completely through strategic oil sales and new import taxes.

Having already traded heavy much of the Monday despite pressure on the dollar index which is trading near session lows, oil took out session lows moments ago on what appear to be three most recent catalysts.

First, Kuwait's oil minister shook some of the market's conviction that the Vienna OPEC oil production cut is being adhered to, when we said that the announced cuts so far make up just 60-70% of the total decrease pledged by OPEC and other major producers.