The ridiculous headline risk that is whipsawing oil showed up this morning once again. WTI slide as much as $41.26 earlier on news that Iran's Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh wouldn't be attending the April 17 meetings in Doha, however just moments later it was reported that Iran's OPEC Governor Kaempour will be attending and losses were largely erased.
Two months after speculation and recurring headlines of an "imminent" OPEC meeting to first cut, then merely freeze (at record output levels) oil production, a meeting in which Iran is certain to not comply with any production curbs and the all important Saudis following suit, not even Goldman believes there is any upside from the meeting scheduled for this upcoming Sunday.
This is what Goldman commodity strategist Damien Courvalin said in a note released overnight.
First it was the Saudis; then Russia announced another month of record oil production.
And now it is Iraq's turn. According to the state-run Oil Marketing Co., Iraq increased crude output to a record level in March, ahead of the long-awaited April 17 meeting in Qatar where OPEC members and other producers may or may not (they won't) agree to cap production to curb a global glut.
Only in the new normal of manic algos and goal-seeked short-squeezes could actual news that Iran is undercutting OPEC by slashing prices to maintain market share be out-followed by hopefulness driven by upbeat comment from Janet Yellen (because she has nailed everyting so far) and more chatter about a production freeze (which makes no sense whatsoever given the Iran news). For now, WTI is trading above $39.50 ahead of today's rig count data, back at 2-week highs.
In the final day of the week, it has again been a story of currencies and commodities setting stock prices, however instead of yesterday's Yen surge which slammed the USDJPY as low as 107.67 and led to a global tumble in equities, and crude slide, today has been a mirror imoage after a modest FX short squeeze, which sent the Yen pair as high as 109.1, before easing back to the 108.80 range.