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Why Trump Thinks Unemployment Is 42%

During his victory speech last night in the New Hampshire Republican primary, Donald Trump exposed what everyone knows but doesnit dare admit: the "phony" unemployment numbers that Obama continues to crow about and The Fed is so focused on....

"Don't believe those phony numbers when you hear 4.9 and 5% unemployment. The number's probably 28%, 29%, as high as 35%, in fact, I even heard recently 42%,"

How does he justify such large estimates? Simple...

What Comes Next?

It would be exceptionally foolish for me, the man who said Donald Trump could very well run the table, to predict the next twist and turn of this campaign with any confidence. It feels like this thing is now Trump’s to lose, since he will run better in South Carolina than Cruz will in Michigan, and the establishment is in deep disarray. It feels like Clinton needs a win to right her campaign, but that one is fairly assured her in South Carolina for demographic reasons.

Trump’s New Hampshire Win

Looking through the New Hampshire exit poll, I was struck again by how broad Trump’s support is. Like past front-runners, he wins with moderates, but he also gets significant support from all kinds of conservatives. Unlike Cruz, whose support is heavily concentrated among the “very conservative” voters, Trump draws evenly from all ideological groups. Unlike Kasich, he is very competitive among conservative voters despite deviating from the party and movement line much more often than the Ohio governor has.

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