S&P 500

When we were discussing the self-reinforcing dynamics of vol-neutral funds yesterday, which may or may not continue selling today depending on what the VIX does, we concluded that aside from the decision-making mechanics of systematic funds, the biggest question would be if the Fed, or other central banks, do not do step in to prop up the market as they have on every other similar occasion in the past 8 years.

Would that imply that traders - be they CTAs, risk-parity, or simply carbon-based - are finally on their own?

European and Asian stocks slumped on Thursday following the worst one-day drop in US stocks in 8 months, while S&P futures tumbled to session lows, down 0.3% to 2,350 after initially posting a modest rebound, following a new Reuters report alleging that Trump campaign members communication with Russians on at least 18 occasions, and which prompted today's risk off mood sending the USDJPY crashing by 100 pips from overnight highs of 111.40.

Yesterday's market dump, the biggest one-day selloff in eight months as concerns about the stability of the Trump administration and concerns about a potential Trump impeachment finally slammed risk assets hard, is also a one-off event. At least that's the opinion of Bloomberg commentator and former trader, Mark Cudmore, who overnight wrote that "without some major new developments, it’s unlikely to be the start of a severe correction. In fact, the worst is probably over already for U.S. equities, for Treasury yields and for the dollar."

Today's sudden 'Minsky Moment' in markets has pushed US equity risk perceptions to their highest relative to Europe since August 2015, back to old 'norms'.

As Bloomberg notes, U.S. politics are taking center stage as risks recede in Europe following the French presidential election. With Donald Trump facing the deepest crisis of his presidency, the CBOE Volatility Index surged on Wednesday, while Europe’s VStoxx Index rose less than 5 percent.

From Nick Colas of Convergex

Loose Lips Sink, Well Everything