With Euro strength dominating FX markets, the Dollar Index has tumbled below 99.00 to the lowest level since Nov 11th.
For the first time since Oct 4th, the dollar index is trading below its 200-day moving-average...
The most volatile pair is EURJPY as risk-on drives drag fx carry higher...
As results begin to trickle in (with pollsters showing Macron leading and official French Interior Ministry showing a Le Pen lead), betting odds ( according to Betfair) are now giving Macron comfortably over 80% chance of becoming France’s next President.
As the evening has gone on and the picture becomes clearer, his odds continue to increase. The market is clearly expecting a ‘Front Republicain’ to form, as it did in 2002, to rally behind Emmanuel Macron and to deny Marine Le Pen.
Last time the GDXJ closed around $36 was on March 13, 2017. Incredibly, during that time frame, gold is up $86 per ounce!
On January 10, gold was trading at $1,190 an ounce, $110 below its current spot price. Again, the performance of the junior gold miners has remained flat!
This is a stark reversal from 2016’s action that saw gold stocks far outperform the price of gold. So what’s next?
Two scenarios can play out from here. The first would see gold coming back down to match the performance of the GDXJ.
"You get a red line, you get a red line, everyone gets a red line..."
Source: Townhall.com
Having bounced off the 50-day moving-average, this morning's ADP print seems to have ignoted just enough momentum to squeeze shorts once again (just ignore the PMI data).
Spot VIX is getting hammered back towards a 10 handle... because, hey, there's no risk anymore, right?