In what were perhaps the two biggest news stories of the past month, Hurricanes Irma and Harvey devastated the American south, disrupting local industry, destroying homes and critical infrastructure and dumping millions of gallons of raw sewage onto city streets - leading to the most destructive beginning to hurricane season in years.
Last week, before the full devastation from Hurricane Harvey was unveiled, Goldman and JPM were the first banks to suggest that the storm's impact on US GDP would be modest: a slight decline in Q3 growth, offset by a similary modest rebound in Q4 and further as emergency funds "trickled down" through the economy.
Last night's first glimpse of Harvey's impact on energy confirmed a sizable crude build but only modest gasoline draw. WTI/RBOB prices slid into the DOE print and extended losses (after a quick kneejerk higher) following a bigger than expected crude build (+4.58mm vs +4mm exp). Gasoline and Distilates saw bigger draws than API reported but it was the collapse in Lower 48 crude production that stood out with most of Texas offline.
API
Initial jobless claims spiked 62k last week - thanks to a 51k surge in Texas - as the impact of Hurricane Harvey ripples (transitorily) through economic data.
This 26% spike in claims is the largest since 2005 (and biggest absolute rise since 2012).
The 298k print is the highest since April 2015.
Texas Governor Greg Abbott said on Sunday that it could cost as much as $180 billion to rebuild Texas following Hurricane Harvey, more than four times what most experts expected ($40 billion). If accurate, Harvey would beat out Hurricane Katrina (total: $160 billion) for costliest storm in US history.