US Federal Reserve

While many investors and analysts are asking when the Federal Reserve will decide to hike rates again, Citi's Global Head of FX Strategy Steven Englander asks a rather different question: Are investors beginning to price in QE4?

He points out that economic data in the U.S. hasn't been very good (sans unemployment headline data), and that for every one positive data release, a series of disappointments follow. He points to the fact that Citi's economic surprise indicator has been dropping since mid-April as reflecting that reality.

If anyone had wondered if Stanley Druckenmiller's recent bearishness had dissipated, or transformed into at least modest bullishness as a result of the market meltup, we have bad news.

Moments ago at the Sohn Conference, Druckenmiller raged at the Federal Reserve's dire monetary policies, saying that low interest rates have caused an environment where "not a week goes by without someone extolling the virtues of the equity market."  The obsession with short term stimulus contrasts with the monetary reform of 80's which led to the bull market, he added. 

Two days ago, when looking at the latest "Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices", we showed that Fed lending standards had tightened for the third quarter in a row, and pointed out that in recent history this has never happened without either a default cycle, or a recession, following immediately after.

While there was no unexpected overnight central bank announcement unlike yesterday's surprise by the RBA which unleashed volatility havoc in the FX market, which promptly spilled over into all asset classes, overnight stocks around the world saw another leg lower without a tangible catalyst, while EM currencies fell to a one-month low after two Fed presidents raised concern investors had become too complacent in their belief that U.S. interest rate raises will stay on hold.

There has been a surprising mood change at JPM over the past 4 months: after initially changing the company's long-held view on equities, which for the first time since 2007 it is no longer holds at overweight, JPM's head equity strategist Mislav Matejka has been quite vocal on urging clients to take advantage of the current rally and sell into it. To be sure, this was surprising because whether JPM is talking its book or not, the bank stands to generate more client fees if the prevailing sentiment is one of bullish optimism rather than the opposite.