Authored by Chris Hamilton via Econimica blog,
(The following was written as an outline for a potential book. To this point no publisher has shown interest and time and funds have run out.)
By Chris at www.CapitalistExploits.at
Bollocks!
Hi there,
I've been hearing a lot from private bankers lately (they're always trying to flog you product), though the topic being discussed amongst themselves is that of the SDR going mainstream, and they've been asking my opinion.
We don't have to look far to understand why.
Having pointed out a glaring error in today's payrolls report, which indicated that there was at least one math error in calculating the average hourly earnings number, and as a result casts doubt on every other piece of data released by the BLS, we urge algos and the handful of carbon-based traders, to take anything released by the BLS with a boulder of salt, especially data on wage inflation, until the BLS provides an explanation for what is going on.
In his latest Macro View, Bloomberg reporter and macro commentator, David Finnerty, explains why investors are better off ignoring today's payrolls report - where "any weakness will be attributed to hurricanes, while a beat on payrolls or wages would be seen as supporting a Federal Reserve interest rate increase in December" - and instead focus on Europe, and specifically the next ECB meeting which will set the stage for the next big move in global risk.
His full note below.
Looking for the Next Treasury Driver After Payrolls
Tomorrow's hurricane-affected September jobs report will be... confusing. That is the (lack of) consensus from Wall Street analysts, who expect an average print of 80,000 (down from the 3-month average of 185K), however with huge variance on either side, with 4 economists predicting a loss of jobs, three expecting a print higher than 150K and one optimistic forecaster going as high as 260,000.
The amusing breakdown by bank is as follows: