The Volatility Collapse: How Long Can This Last?
Authored by ConvergEx's Nicholas Colas,
Authored by ConvergEx's Nicholas Colas,
Below looks at the VIX (Fear Level) over the past few years. A rally had taken place in the VIX, driving it up to falling resistance and its 50% retracement level at (1), in the chart below.
CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE
One day after covering its long-standing long dollar call (coincidentally, just one week after former Goldman COO Gary Cohn urged Trump to flip on his own "strong dollar" policy), Goldman has gotten even more cautious and in a note released this morning it warns that "Investors are increasingly concerned about an S&P drawdown." Here's why:
Global stocks were pressured by a poor start to the second quarter in the US, where carmakers reported disappointing sales data, slamming auto stocks around the globe. The selling has persisted for a second day, with Asian stocks and European shares all partially in the red today after their biggest decline in two weeks. Car sector is biggest mover in Europe, offsetting gains in financial services and media.
Welcome to a new financial quarter.
As part of the usual review of last month and Q1 asset performance, it is worth nothing one surprising element of Q1 we showed over the weekend, namely that the VIX index had its lowest average quarter since Q4 2006.