On Monday, the US and Russia announced that an agreement on a “cessation of hostilities” in Syria had been reached.
The deal applies only to groups not deemed to be “terrorists” and that determination will supposedly be made by Washington and Moscow with the proper deference to UN designations.
On Tuesday, Bashar al-Assad said his government (or whatever is left of it) is prepared to abide by the terms. “The Syrian government announces its acceptance of a halt to combat operations on the basis of continuing military efforts to combat terrorism against Daesh, the Nusra Front, and the other terrorist organizations linked to it and to the al Qaeda organization, according to the Russian-American announcement,” a statement reads.
But Damascus also warned that foreign interference (i.e. from Turkey or Saudi Arabia) threatens to undermine the deal. “Foreign support to armed groups should be halted” in order to “prevent these organizations from strengthening their capabilities or changing their positions, in order to avoid what may lead to wrecking this agreement.” In other words, if Ankara and Riyadh continue to meddle, Damascus will call the whole thing off and you can bet Tehran will support that decision.
As for the rebels, they wholeheartedly agree with our assessment from Monday. “There are al-Nusra elements everywhere,” we said. “Russia will always be able to claim that its warplanes are targeting parties not subject to the agreement because the situation on the ground is impossibly fluid.”
The deal “leaves a significant loophole by allowing further attacks, including air strikes, against Islamic State, Nusra and other militant groups,” Reuters noted yesterday, adding that “Bashar al-Zoubi, head of the political office of the Yarmouk Army, part of the rebel Free Syrian Army, said that would provide cover for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his Russian allies to keep attacking opposition-held territory where rebel and militant factions are tightly packed.”
"Russia and the regime will target the areas of the revolutionaries on the pretext of the Nusra Front's presence, and you know how mixed those areas are, and if this happens, the truce will collapse," he remarked. Here’s a bit more from Reuters:
Rebel officials said it was impossible to pinpoint positions held by Nusra.
"For us, al-Nusra is a problematic point, because al-Nusra is not only present in Idlib, but also in Aleppo, in Damascus and in the south. The critical issue here is that civilians or the Free Syrian Army could be targeted under the pretext of targeting al-Nusra," said a senior opposition figure, Khaled Khoja.
Right. And that’s precisely what we’ve been arguing for months. This has virtually no chance of succeeding and you can bet that Moscow and Tehran will indeed use Nusra's presence in the west as a pretext for more bombing. Below, find the ISW's latest rundown of al-Nusra's operations in Syria. As you can see, their geographic dispersion makes it exceptionally difficult to pin down where they're concentrated.
Jabhat al Nusra’s Fighting Force & Geographical Footprint Jabhat al Nusra’s organization consists of:
- A fighting force of at least 3,000-5,000 fighters, according to open sources in 2013. The planning group estimates but cannot assess from open sources that this number has likely grown by several thousand fighters as of December 2015
- At least 19 training camps in Western Syria36
- Foreign fighters, comprising at least 30% of its force
- Ethnic subunits,38 including Chechens, Uighurs, Moroccans, Saudis, Uzbeks, and Europeans.
Jabhat al Nusra operates:
- Across eight of Syria’s nine western provinces in rural and urban terrain, including Damascus. Primary zones of military strength include
- Aleppo City
- Jabal Turkman region of Northeastern Latakia Province
- Jabal Zawiya region in Southern Idlib Province
- Quneitra Province along the Golan Heights.
Meanwhile, The Pentagon and the CIA are suspicious of "sneaky" Russians:
- PENTAGON, CIA CHIEFS DON'T THINK RUSSIA WILL ABIDE BY SYRIA CEASEFIRE--OFFICIALS
- PENTAGON, CIA CHIEFS WANT WHITE HOUSE TO READY PLANS TO INCREASE PRESSURE ON MOSCOW
So in short, no one trusts anyone and thanks to the "terrorist" loophole, everyone has free reign to keep attacking everyone else.
And speaking of "terrorists," expect Turkey to continue his assault on the YPG in the Azaz corridor on the excuse that the group is simple the Syrian arm of the PKK, which both Ankara and Washington identify as a terror organization.