In recent weeks, status-quo maintainers have pointed to The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow forecast's resurgence as evidence that the market is just being irrational and that everything is awesome after all. Since we first brought the world's attention to this real-time forecast of US economic growth it has become closely-watched by all... which is why the most recent surge to +2.7% - in the face of dismal data - following our confrontation with The Fed in Janaury over "technical difficulties" makes us wonder if someone in Atlanta got a call from The Eccles Building to get on board...
For the last few years, The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow forecast has tracked excellently with the day to day shifts in US economic data - as it should. But that changed a month ago...
On January 15th 2016, we noted The Atlanta Fed delayed the release of its most dire GDP estimate yet - a paltry +0.6% - just a month after Yellen decided to raise interest rates.
Hours later, The Atlanta Fed responded, explaining the "technical delays" were "nothing nefarious"...
@zerohedge Apologies for the late-day data release. Nothing more nefarious than technical difficulties, which we believe have been resolved.
— Atlanta Fed (@AtlantaFed) January 15, 2016
But given the total decoupling that has occurred between GDPNow and US Macro data that occurred since that exact date - we are growing increasingly conspiratorial that something more 'nefarious' has occurred.