As we previewed earlier this morning, today's FOMC announcement will most likely be a snooze-fest, with consensus expecting the Fed to leave its target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 1.00-1.25% as it continues to evaluate to what degree recent disinflation is temporary or persistent.
As several trading desks have opined, the committee is likely to look favorably at the underling components of the Q3 GDP report, while Friday's jobs report, which Goldman said presents "upside risk to our nonfarm payrolls forecast of +325k" following today's stronger than expected ADP report, will likely underscore the Fed's commitment to continue rising rates for the near future. As a further reminder, the market is almost fully pricing in (over 85% odds) another 25bps hike in December. There will be no updated economic projections, nor will there be a press conference from Fed Chair Janet Yellen.
Still, as BBG's Mark Cudmore explained earlier today, there is potential for a dovish - if not so much hawkish - surprise today.
Here is a quick and dirty cheat sheet, courtesy of TD, laying out what to look for in today's FOMC statement to decide if the Fed is leaning dovish, hawkish or neither, and what the most likely kneejerk reaction will be.
And, as a bonus, here is another cheat sheet from ING, looking at the various scenarios on how to interpret subtle word changes...