Bullion bulls betting that this rally has more room to run have history on their side with the arrival of a new U.S. president.
As Bloomberg reports, a look at recent presidential transitions supports optimism among traders over the metal’s prospects. Gold has averaged gains of almost 15% in years marking the inauguration of a new president since the 1970s, advancing in five of those seven years. In contrast, the S&P 500 index of equities declined in four of those years for an average loss over the period of 0.9 percent.
2017 is playing out that way, so far.
Gold, which is coming off the worst quarter in more than three years, has in 2017 managed to shrug off gains in equities and prospects for more U.S. rate increases, rising almost 5%, up to over $1200 an ounce. Whether gains last may depend on how smooth the transition is to the new presidency.
“What happens frequently is you have a new president, there’s a lot of euphoria and then reality kicks in,” says Merk, who oversees a gold exchange-traded fund with assets totaling $120 million. “It’s more difficult to implement policies.”
This is the sixth year in a row where gold has started off well, even better than last year...
From Presidents Gerald Ford to Barack Obama, bullion has often served as a haven in times of political flux.
“We have no idea what’s going to happen with some of Trump’s policies -- everybody is a little nervous,” said Axel Merk, San Francisco-based founder of Merk Investments LLC, which manages $300 million in assets.
“Gold is relatively undervalued and will push higher.”