When it comes to predicting the trajectory of Trump's presidential campaign (in which he currently has a nearly 60% lead over Ted Cruz in number of delegates), "credible predictors", the media, pundits, and other self-appointed experts, have been dead wrong every step of the way, calling for his demise so many times even they themselves no longer believe their narrative.
So perhaps it is good news for the independent Republican candidate that ahead of Tuesday's Wisconsin primary, where he first had a sizable lead, than last week was trailing by double digits, before being virtually tied with Cruz, and then trailing again per the latest CBS poll...
... not a single "credible prediction" has him winning tomorrow's primary.
According to Bloomberg, here are the six forecasts it used used in its sample, of which every single one has Cruz winning the Badger State:
PredictWise: Cruz and Sanders
The research project led by David Rothschild, an economist at Microsoft Research in New York City which aggregates betting-market data and polling, has successfully predicted the winner in 53 of 64 individual nominating contests so far this year. As of Sunday, PredictWise gave Cruz an 83 percent chance of winning in Wisconsin, with Trump at 15 percent and Ohio Governor John Kasich at 1 percent.
“Trump is not going to get many delegates on Tuesday. He is unlikely to win the state and recent polling puts him down in every single congressional district,” says Rothschild, who notes that Trump's chances of winning the nomination are down to 54 percent from a recent high of around 80 percent. “Sanders will likely win Wisconsin, but Clinton will pick up enough delegates to keep her ahead of pace to get the nomination.”
RealClearPolitics: Cruz and Sanders
As of Sunday, the poll averaging and aggregating site RealClearPolitics had Cruz ahead in Wisconsin by nearly 7 points, on average, and up by as much as 10 points in two recent polls. As for the Democrats, Sanders enjoyed a narrower 2.2-point lead, according to the site's average. Pollsters only examined the state sporadically until late March, but both likely winners on Tuesday appear to have surged in recent weeks.
Bing: Cruz and Sanders
With a roughly 78-percent accuracy rating so far this cycle, Bing Predicts also projects a Cruz win on Tuesday, and predicts he'll carry a bit more than 41 percent of the vote. That's a shift from last Thursday, when the site expected Ohio Governor John Kasich to eke out a victory with just barely more than a third of total votes, according to the “machine-learned predictive model” that the Microsoft search engine created. It parses data from polls, prediction markets, search engine queries, and social media posts.Sanders, meanwhile, is projected to win about 54 percent of the vote.
FiveThirtyEight: Cruz and Toss-Up
On Sunday, FiveThirtyEight, which is run by former New York Times stats guru Nate Silver, gave Cruz as high as a 95 percent chance of winning Wisconsin. Trump, meanwhile, has just an 11-percent chance when looking at recent state polls; his chances actually dip to 5 percent when national polls and endorsements are factored in. Kasich has a less-than-1-percent chance of winning Wisconsin under either scenario.
Political Insiders: Cruz and Clinton
Cruz failed to win over his Republican Wisconsin Senate colleague, Ron Johnson, who avoided making a formal endorsement even as he said he'd be willing to campaign with Trump. Still, Cruz has the most impressive roster of Badger State endorsements: Governor Scott Walker, Representative Glenn Grothman, state Assembly Speaker Robin Vos, and Assembly Majority Leader Jim Steineke. Vos was one of at least 20 state legislators who'd earlier supported Florida Senator Marco Rubio. When Rubio dropped out in March, several of those lawmakers swung to Cruz. Kasich, meanwhile, was endorsed by the editorial board of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, the state's largest newspaper.
Ballotcraft: Cruz and Sanders
This fantasy politics game, founded by two Stanford grads, has thousands of players who use fake money to buy “shares” in candidates. So far, it has correctly predicted 55 of the 68 nominating contests it has covered. As of Sunday, Cruz was expected to win in Wisconsin, where the site's users give him roughly 76-percent chance of winning.
Still, if just once every single pundit actually does get it right this time, what comes after Wisconsin is far more crucial, and it is there, in the next two big delegate-right states, New York and Pennsylvania, that Trump retains a comfortable lead. In New York, his home state, Trump bests Cruz by 31 points, with 52 percent support to Cruz's 21 percent support.
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In Pennsylvania, Trump receives 47 percent support to Cruz's 29 percent support.
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In short, the latest round of media predictions of Trump's imminent demise may once again be greatly exagerated.