The thundering herd of "individuals" shifted awkwardly as June came to an end...
US Economic data in Q2 was the most disappointing since Q2 2011...
June was a rollercoaster:
- Nasdaq's worst month since October (breaking a 7 month win streak)
- FANG Stocks worst month (first losing month) since November
- Dow best month since February
- Small Caps best month since November
- Risk-Parity Funds lost 1.6% in June - the first loss since November
- 10Y Treasury Yield biggest rise since November
- Treasury Yield Curve unchanged.
- Gold's worst month since November
- USD Index feel for 5th of last 6 months
- WTI fell for 4th straight month (despite last 7 days up - best streak in 6 months)
Small Caps were the biggest gainers in June, Nasdaq the biggest loser... the S&P (light green) bounced of unch for June yesterday and its 40DMA...
The Dow manage to outperform, helped by the banks, the long bond ended June unch, Gold down, and WTI down wose but making a big comeback...
FANG Stocks could not catch a bid...
Notably, as both high-beta stocks and bonds are hammered in the last two weeks, so Risk-Parity funds are coming under serious pressure...
The Dollar Index tumbled in June to its weakest since Sept 2016...
Led by a 3.7% surge in the Loonie (JPY was 1.5% weaker against the dollar in June)...
Treasuries saw the biggest moves in the month... Fascinatingly, 30Y actually saw yields lower on the month even as the rest of the curve all rose (led by 5Y)...
By a miracle of modern algos, the 2s10s Treasury curve ended June perfectly unchanged thanks to the dramatic steepening in the last 4 days...
Copper had the best month of the commodity bunch as perhaps signals that China is folding on its tightening efforts are appearing...big finish to the month for crude too...
* * *
Ok - so having got June out of the way, this week has been full of swings too...
The Dow desperatly scrambled up to unchanged on the week, Nasdaq bouned a little but couldn't hold gains, and While Small Caps led the week, BUT when the ugliness hit at the bell, everythig plunged, Dow closed red on the week and Small Caps managed tiny gain...
VIX jumped back above 11 into the close as Nasdaq went red on the day..
And an ugly week for bonds too...
The Dollar Index saw its worst week in the last 7, led by strength in Cable, the Loonie, and Euro; JPY was weaker on the week...
WTI soared 7.3% on the week and despite Dollar weaknes, Precious metals limped lower...
WTI Crude is up 7 days in a row - the best streak in 6 months, bouncing off support around $42/43 again...
It seems Citi was right after all.