In one of the most comical expressions of failed Keynesian logic, two months ago, Deutsche Bank boosted its German GDP forecasts as a result of the "surge in immigration" - because no crisis can be wasted, the record influx of Syrian (and ISIS?) refugees...
... was to be immediately spun as being for the greater good. This is what DB predicted would happen:
"Although the external and the financial environment have deteriorated we have lifted our 2016 GDP call," Deutsche Bank said. "Drivers are stronger real consumption growth due to lower oil prices/stronger EUR and the surge in immigration," analysts wrote, adding they expected the boost in consumption to be evenly split between private and public.
Ironically, DB may have been spot on: perhaps the bank with the $50 trillion in derivatives was anticipating soaring weapon sales to boost consumption (and thus GDP) because as we reported last Monday. "Germans Scramble To Buy Weapons Amid Nationwide Spike In Migrant-Driven Crime." It is unclear if said migrant-driven crime is also a boost to GDP: perhaps if it involves a whole lot of broken windows to keep up with the idiocy that is Keynesian circular logic.
However, while one can spin economic "data" any way one wants (after all, economists claim with a straight face that both abnormally cold and overly warm winters are both bad for GDP, and double seasonal adjustments "confirm" they are right), the ultimate purpose of improving data -whether real or fabricated - is to boost consumer confidence and thus increase spending and increase the velocity of money.
Sadly, for Germany, this is precisely what is not happening. According to Deutsche Welle, a new survey has revealed that most Germans believe the influx of refugees will not provide an economic boost, in fact quite the opposite.
Judging by the poll's results, either nobody read DB's "incisive" report on the refugee crisis boosting Germany's economy, or nobody believes it: only 16 percent of those surveyed agreed with the statement "the influx of refugees will result in more economic opportunities than problems for us," according to the survey conducted by the Ipsos Institute on behalf of the Hamburg researcher Horst Opaschowski.
Among the other findings, the percentage of Germans who believe "Germany will gain recognition in the world by accepting so many refugees" was only slightly higher at 20 percent.
The worst news for Merkel is that a majority of Germans - 56 percent - believe the country is not up to the challenge of dealing with the influx. In small towns of less than 5,000 people, this figure rose to 66 percent.
Amid the sharp spike in refugees in Europe in 2015, German policy is crafted on Chancellor Angela Merkel's "we can manage" approach.
Statistics from the German Office for Migration and Refugees (BAMF) indicate that through November 2015, Germany had seen more than double the number of refugees of last year. The figures also show that a third of all asylum seekers in Germany came from Syria in 2015.
The findings on German sentiment on the refugee crisis come after another survey released last week showed that some 50 percent of those surveyed were looking at the coming year "with great skepticism and mixed feelings." Only 27 percent had said this ahead of 2015.
Similarly, only 18 percent of the 1,000 respondents said that they viewed the coming year "with great confidence and optimism," compared to 45 percent a year ago.
"The mood's tipping. The German angst is coming back," researcher Horst Opaschowski concluded.
And if there is one thing Europe has learned to be concerned about, it is returning German "angst", especially when accompanied by massive population displacement.