US Futures, World Stocks, Bitcoin All Hit Record Highs

US equity futures continued their push higher into record territory overnight (ES +0.1%), and the VIX is 1.5% lower and back under 10, after yesterday's blistering surge in US stocks which jumped 1%, the most since Sept. 11, following Powell's deregulation promise, ahead of today's 2nd estimate of U.S. Q3 GDP which is expected to be revised up. U.S. Senate Budget Committee sent the tax bull to the full chamber to vote, and on Wednesday Senators are expected to vote to begin debating the bill.  It wasn't just the S&P: MSCI’s all-country world index was at yet another record peak after all four major Wall Street indexes notched up new highs on Tuesday. Finally, completing the trifecta of records, and the biggest mover of the overnight session by far, was bitcoin which topped $10,000 in a buying frenzy which saw it go from $9,000 to $10,000 in one day, and which is on its way to rising above $11,000 just hours later.

In macro, the dollar steadies as interbank traders and hedge funds fade its rally this week; today's major event will be testimony by outgoing Fed chair Janet Yellen after Powell said there is no sign of an overheating economy; the euro has rallied on strong German regional inflation while pound surges on Brexit bill deal news; yields on 10-year gilts climb amid broad bond weakness; stocks rise while commodities trade mixed.

In Asia, equity markets were mixed for a bulk of the session as the early euphoria from the rally in US somewhat petered out as China woes persisted (recovered in the latter stages of trade). ASX 200 (+0.5%) and Nikkei 225 (+0.5%) traded higher. Korea's KOSPI was cautious following the missile launch from North Korea, while Shanghai Comp. (+0.1%) and Hang Seng (+-0.2%) initially remained dampened on continued deleveraging and regulatory concerns before paring losses into the latter stages of trade. Notably, China's PPT emerged again with Chinese stock markets rallied in late trade, with the CSI 300 Index of mainly large-cap stocks paring a drop of as much as 1.3% to close 0.1% lower. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.1%, swinging up from a 0.8% loss, with property and materials companies among the biggest gainers on the mainland. The Shanghai Stock Exchange Property Index surged 3.8%, the most since August 2016. The Shenzhen Composite Index was little changed, after a 1.2% decline, while the ChiNext gauge retreated 0.4%, paring a 1.5% loss. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index was little changed as of 3 p.m. local time, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 0.3%Stocks in Europe gained, following equities from the U.S. to Asia higher as optimism over U.S. tax reform and euro-area economic growth overshadowed concerns about North Korea’s latest missile launch. The Stoxx 600 gained 0.8%, reaching a one-week high and testing its 50-DMA. Germany’s DAX, France’s CAC, Milan and Madrid were all up between 0.5 and 0.7% and MSCI’s all-country world index was at yet another record peak after all four major Wall Street indexes notched up new highs on Tuesday. “It seems to me markets are still trading on the theory that the glass is half full,” said fund manager Hermes’ chief economist Neil Williams.  

Meanwhile the FTSE 100 fell 0.5%. The UK stock index typically has an inverse relationship with the pound as its members get 3/4 of their revenues from outside the country. As a reminder, the British pound surged on Tuesday after media reports that the UK cleared a major Brexit hurdle.

“Today’s gains will be vulnerable, and the market will keep a very close eye on anything about North Korea. There’s serious risk of escalation, and it could offset any positive news on the U.S. tax bill,” Benjamin Philippe, fund manager at Degroof Petercam Gestion, says by phone.

Some analysts, however, did warn of the risks of unintended consequences if the package was passed. “Tax cuts will mainly boost the demand side of the economy at a time when the economy has little spare capacity,” said Jeremy Lawson, chief economist at Standard Life Investments. “For that reason, the package will primarily bring forward activity with most of the stimulus eventually offset by the Federal Reserve lifting interest rates more quickly.”

Meanwhile, in the U.K., price action was driven in reaction to the news that a Brexit divorce payment had been agreed upon, with gilts dropping and sterling jumping to a two-month high as investors brought forward their expectations for the next interest-rate increase by the BoE to September 2018 after Brexit negotiators agreed to an outline divorce deal. The FTSE 100 stock index fell.

It was a busy geopolitical session, with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un saying his regime completed its nuclear program after firing a missile that put the entire U.S. in range. The launch shattered a two-month period of relative quiet in its first provocation since U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision this month to label the country a state sponsor of terrorism. Trump responded that “we will take care of that situation.”

North Korea said its missile program will not threaten any country as long as North Korea's sovereign gains are not infringed, and confirmed it fired a new type of ICBM named Hwasong-15 which was ordered by leader Kim, adds launch was successful and could reach all of mainland US. President Trump and Japanese PM Abe agreed to strengthen deterrence capability against North Korea, also agreeing that China needs to play a greater role regarding North Korea. Additionally, South Korean President Moon said South Korea will strengthen its capabilities against North Korean provocation, while urging North Korea to stop reckless provocation and come to path of dialogue.

Meanwhile, back in the US, the Senate tax bill is headed for a marathon debate this week after the budget committee voted Tuesday along party lines to send the Republican plan to the floor. Republican holdouts, Bob Corker of Tennessee and Ron Johnson of Wisconsin, dropped their objections shortly before the vote.

Following yesterday's confirmation hearing testimony by Fed chairman nominee Powell, who said the case for a December rate hike “is coming together” and suggested that Dodd Frank would be rolled back as a new wave of deregulation hits the market, today it's Janet Yellen's turn to speak on the Hill.

Euro zone government bond yields edged higher meanwhile as the first instalments of German state inflation data pointed to another uptick for Europe’s largest economy, which should bolster the ECB’s move to wind down its stimulus. “In recent months we have seen core inflation dropping, and that has been identified by the ECB as a key measure,” said ING strategist Martin van Vliet. It all helped the euro reassert its recent dominance over the dollar. The euro climbed up to $1.1870 and against a basket of currencies the dollar was down 0.2 percent at 93.075 .DXY and not far off a two-month trough touched on Monday. The dollar was steadier against the yen at 111.54 yen and away from a 10-week low of 110.85, while the pounds jump on a trade-weighted basis was 1.4 percent, its best since April.

In other rates markets, the yield on 10-year Treasuries gained one basis point to 2.34%, Germany’s 10-year Bunds rose two basis points to 0.34%, the biggest increase in almost three weeks, while     Britain’s 10-year yield increased six basis points to 1.253 percent, the highest in more than two weeks on the largest increase in almost three weeks.

Elsewhere, crude oil fell for a third day as U.S. inventories expanded before OPEC meets to decide on prolonging supply cuts past the end of March. Industrial metals extended a slide.

Markets Snapshot

• E-Mini futures on Dow Jones 0.26% higher
• E-Mini futures on S&P 500 0.08% higher  to 2,628
• STOXX Europe 600 up 0.6% to 389.49
• MSCI Asia up 0.3% to 172.42
• MSCI Asia ex Japan up 0.05% to 564.05
• Nikkei up 0.5% to 22,597.20
• Topix up 0.8% to 1,786.15
• Hang Seng Index down 0.2% to 29,623.83
• Shanghai Composite up 0.1% to 3,337.86
• Sensex up 0.03% to 33,627.88
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.5% to 6,011.12
• Kospi down 0.05% to 2,512.90
• German 10Y yield rose 2.9 bps to 0.368%
• Euro up 0.3% to $1.1871
• Brent Futures down 0.6% to $63.20/bbl
• Italian 10Y yield fell 0.5 bps to 1.514%
• Spanish 10Y yield rose 0.7 bps to 1.467%
• Brent Futures down 0.6% to $63.20/bbl
• Gold spot up 0.06% to $1,294.81
• U.S. Dollar Index down 0.2% to 93.08

Top Overnight News

• A key concession that helped clear Republican tax legislation for a Senate vote as early as Thursday is drawing sharp opposition from conservative groups and some lawmakers, signaling that GOP leaders still face challenges in achieving a major legislative victory before year’s end
• U.K. and the European Union negotiators reached an outline deal on the Brexit divorce bill, clearing a hurdle in negotiations and ramping up pressure to find a compromise on the thorny issue of the Irish border
• North Korean leader Kim Jong Un claimed his regime’s missile launch showed it can strike the U.S. with a nuclear weapon, signaling a new phase in its standoff with President Donald Trump
• Bitcoin surpassed $10,000 for the first time and continued higher, taking this year’s price surge to 11-fold even as warnings multiply that the largest digital currency is an asset bubble
• Prince Miteb bin Abdullah, one of the most senior Saudi royals detained in the kingdom’s corruption crackdown, has been released after reaching a settlement deal believed to exceed the equivalent of $1 billion
• Bitcoin surpassed $10,000 for the first time, bringing this year’s price surge to more than 10-fold even as warnings multiply that the largest digital currency is an asset bubble
• Repeated bursts of political skirmishing have left Republican and Democratic panel leaders preparing competing findings of Russian meddling in the U.S. election
• Not since before the creation of the monetary union in 1999 have growth rates across the more prosperous northern and weaker southern European states been as close as they are now
• The $11 trillion market for credit derivatives is coming under renewed criticism in Europe because of concerns that one of the region’s riskiest companies is heading for a debt restructuring that could expose shortcomings in default insurance
• In their 2018 outlooks, Deutsche Bank AG and Morgan Stanley present underweight recommendations on European cyclical stocks, including the technology sector

Asia equity markets were mixed for a bulk of the session as the early euphoria from the rally in US somewhat petered out as China woes persisted (recovered in the latter stages of trade). ASX 200 (+0.5%) and Nikkei 225 (+0.5%) traded higher following the record levels seen in their US counterparts where all major indices posted fresh all-time highs amid strength in financials and after the Senate Budget Committee approved the tax reform plan. Conversely, KOSPI (Unch.) was cautious following the missile launch from North Korea, while Shanghai Comp. (+0.1%) and Hang Seng (+-0.2%) initially remained dampened on continued deleveraging and regulatory concerns before paring losses into the latter stages of trade. Finally, 10yr JGBs were relatively quiet as focus remained on riskier assets, although prices have eked minimal gains with the BoJ in the market for JPY 700bln of JGBs in the belly to super-long end. PBoC injected CNY 160bln via 7-day reverse repos, CNY 70bln via 14-day reverse repos and CNY 10bln via 63-day reverse repos.  PBoC set CNY mid-point at 6.6011 (Prev. 6.5944). CBRC official stated China’s economy still faces relatively significant downward pressure, which could be apparent by early next year.

Top Asian News

• A 91% Stock Rally, and Now a Unit of Temasek Is Knocking
• Tencent Delays Unlimited Trial for ’Glorious Mission’ Game
• Singapore Exchange Aims for Faster Trade Settlement Next Year
• BOJ’s Nakaso Says Demographics to Stress Nation’s Regional Banks
• Asia Stocks Track U.S. Gains as Markets Ignore North Korea Test

European stocks off to a good start this morning, aside from the FTSE 100 which has been hampered by the stronger GBP. Sentiment has been lifted by the progress in US tax cut plans, alongside a potential breakthrough in Brexit talks. In terms of sector specifics, financial names outperform, most likely driven by the pick-up in yields; led by the UK. Elsewhere, LSE (-2.25%) trade lower in the wake of reports that Xavier Rolet has finally settled the Co.’s board room battle by stepping down from his position as CEO. It’s been far more measured, and Eurex led this time, but bonds have witnessed more selling and Bunds enough to register a fresh low at 162.71, closer to a downside target on some intraday or short term charts around 162.61. The apparent early release of prelim German CPI, at 1.8% y/y vs 1.7% expected, may have provided some fundamental impetus for bears, despite the figures being pulled and the bias firmer than consensus anyway based on state data,  but in truth this leg down in bonds seems more overarching and part of a general shift in sentiment due to what appears to be positive outcomes, or at least progressive developments regarding several uncertain issues – namely Brexit negotiations, US tax reforms and the OPEC/nonOPEC deal extension. Conversely, fixed may glean a degree of underlying support on month end factors and balance sheet/portfolio positioning needs. Core EU benchmarks now some 10 ticks off worst levels, US Treasuries flat to a tad softer at the longer end of the curve.

Top European News

• Sweden’s Economy Barrels Ahead as Housing-Market Anxiety Grows
• Legal AI Gains Traction as U.K. Startup Targets U.S.
• U.K. Consumer-Credit Growth Underlines BOE Bank Capital Action
• East Europe’s Powerhouse Flees Balkan Woes for Western Calm
• Bayer CEO Says Optimistic Monsanto Deal to Close Early 2018

European stocks off to a good start this morning, aside from the FTSE 100 which has been hampered by the stronger GBP. Sentiment has been lifted by the progress in US tax cut plans, alongside a potential breakthrough in Brexit talks. In terms of sector specifics, financial names outperform, most likely driven by the pick-up in yields; led by the UK. Elsewhere, LSE (-2.25%) trade lower in the wake of reports that Xavier Rolet has finally settled the Co.’s board room battle by stepping down from his position as CEO. It’s been far more measured, and Eurex led this time, but bonds have witnessed more selling and Bunds enough to register a fresh low at 162.71, closer to a downside target on some intraday or short term charts around 162.61. The apparent early release of prelim German CPI, at 1.8% y/y vs 1.7% expected, may have provided some fundamental impetus for bears, despite the figures being pulled and the bias firmer than consensus anyway based on state data,  but in truth this leg down in bonds seems more overarching and part of a general shift in sentiment due to what appears to be positive outcomes, or at least progressive developments regarding several uncertain issues – namely Brexit negotiations, US tax reforms and the OPEC/nonOPEC deal extension. Conversely, fixed may glean a degree of underlying support on month end factors and balance sheet/portfolio positioning needs. Core EU benchmarks now some 10 ticks off worst levels, US Treasuries flat to a tad softer at the longer end of the curve.

In FX, GBP/USD has continued to rally on reports (unconfirmed) that the UK and EU have reached a divorce settlement deal, in principle, with a EUR 60bln figure touted and payment terms said to be staggered. Cable has cleared the 1.3400 marker and is testing key fibo resistance in the 1.3415-20 area with stops said to be in place on a sustained break and little else on the technical front preventing further gains towards the next big/psychological figure. EUR/GBP back down in the low 0.8800 area despite a relatively firm single currency vs other majors. EUR Holding above key chart support vs the USD around 1.1813 despite positive news on the US tax reform bill with notable data from the session thusfar including Y/Y and M/M pick-ups in regional German CPIs. In terms of the boarder USD, the DXY is maintaining recovery gains just over the 93.300 level on Senate Budget Committee approval of the Reps tax proposal, which is expected to be put to the floor tomorrow, and Fed chair-in-waiting Powell  signalling his backing for another rate hike.

In commodities, crude futures slightly weaker and somewhat unfazed by source reports that OPEC and Non-OPEC members have agreed a 9-month extension to output cuts, given that expectations had been for an agreement to this effect. Furthermore, some commentators continue to highlight that an extension to output cuts could be by less than the touted 9 months if negotiations prove to be difficult. API crude report showed an unexpected build in the headline figure. In metals markets, gold prices have meandered alongside an uneventful greenback and copper languished from yesterday’s slump amid continued concerns regarding its largest consumer China. US API weekly crude stocks (20 Nov, w/e) 1.821M (Prev. -6.356M). Russia are not reluctant to extend production cuts to the end of next year, according to Oman.

Looking at the day ahead, the main focus today will be Fed Chair Yellen’s testimony before the congressional Joint Economic Committee in Washington in the afternoon. Will she speak a little freer now her tenor is nearly over? As a team player that might a stretch too far. Also worth noting is a scheduled speech from the Fed’s Williams. Datawise in Europe the big focus will be on the flash November CPI report in Germany. In the US we’ll get the second reading of Q3 GDP and Core PCE. Also due out is Q3 GDP in France, October money and credit aggregates for the UK, November confidence indicators for the Euro area and October pending home sales for the US. The Fed’s Beige Book will also be out in the evening.

US Event Calendar

• 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, prior 0.1%
• 8:30am: GDP Annualized QoQ, est. 3.2%, prior 3.0%; Personal Consumption, est. 2.5%, prior 2.4%; GDP Price Index, est. 2.2%, prior 2.2%; Core PCE QoQ, est. 1.3%, prior 1.3%
• 10am: Pending Home Sales MoM, est. 1.0%, prior 0.0%; NSA YoY, est. 3.0%, prior -5.4%
• 2pm: U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
• 8:30am: Fed’s Dudley speaks About U.S. Economy
• 10am: Yellen Appears before Joint Economic Committee of Congress
• 1:50pm: Fed’s Williams Speaks at Economic Forecast Luncheon in Phoenix
• 2pm: U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
• 3:30pm: Kashkari hosts a Q&A on Twitter

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Although the new Fed Chair Mr Powell’s prepared text for the Senate Banking Committee didn’t seem ground breaking and focused on continuity, investors appear to have liked his remarks on a potential regulatory easing on the financial sector that pushed US financials up +2.58% and the S&P (+0.98%) to a fresh record high. During Q&A, he noted “we will…considerappropriate ways to ease regulatory burdens while preserving core reforms”.

Further, he added financial regulations are “tough enough” and supports a “rewrite” of the Dodd-Frank Volcker rule and believes we can do that in a way that is “faithful to both the language and the intent”. Notably, he did caveat that he no longer thinks any of the large US banks are “too big to fail”. On rates, he noted the case for a December rate hike is “coming together” and reiterated the expectation that “interest rates will rise somewhat further and the size of our balance sheet to gradually shrink”. Finally, he noted we are looking at an economy where unemployment is going to go below 4%.

Staying in the US, the Senate tax plans appear to be heading in the right direction. The Senate budget committee has voted 12-11 to send the tax bill for debate, which could allow a full Chamber vote as early as this Thursday. President Trump noted “the bill will have lots of adjustments before it ends, but the end result will be very massive”. In the meantime, he has met with some of the  undecided Republican Senators and described the meeting as “somewhat of a lovefest” and that “they want to see it (tax reforms) happen”. Elsewhere, one of the swing voters, Senator Murkowski noted “I’m feeling better today and I’m optimistic about the bill”.

Over in the UK, all seven UK based banks have passed the annual stress tests with no bank ordered to raise additional capital or change their strategies. In the details, the 2017 stress test was based on a scenario more severe than the GFC with assumptions including: a UK and global economic decline, GBPUSD down 27%, house prices down 1/3 and a further £40bln of misconduct charges. However, the test showed that these losses can now be absorbed within banks’ existing capital buffers. Notably, the BOE has raised the counter cyclical capital buffer from 0.5% to 1%, potentially adding £6bln of additional capital to the banks’ minimum requirement going forward. At a press conference later, BOE’s Governor Carney has warned that a minimum 18-24 months of Brexit transition is required and “the combination of a disorderly Brexit, a severe global recession and stressed misconduct tests could result in more severe conditions than in the stress test”. Of the major UK banks, HSBC and RBS rose c1% while Barclays dipped 0.1% and Lloyds fell 1%.

Staying in the UK, the Telegraph has reported that the UK and the EU reached an outline deal on the financial settlement issue late last week. Without citing sources, the paper noted the UK will improve its offer to €45bln-€55bln (from €20bln) depending on how each side calculates the outputs. If true, this should clear one of the key issues that is stalling the Brexit talks, but the issue of Irish borders remain. Although Sterling had originally dipped on the day, this news sent it around 1% higher from the lows.

The US rally only briefly missed a beat when late in the US session, Yonhap reported that North Korea has fired a ballistic missile. It landed into the Sea of Japan with no casualties and reactions from US markets have been muted with President Trump noting “we’ll take care of that situation”. This morning, Asian markets are trading mixed. The Nikkei is up 0.27% and Kospi is broadly flat, but Hang Seng (-0.36%) and China’s CSI 300 (-0.89%) are down as we type. China’s 10y policy bank bond yield has increased by 70bp in the last 2 months. DB’s Zhiwei Zhang take a closer look at the potential causes such as financial sector deleveraging, regulatory tightening and changing inflation expectations.

Now recapping market performance from yesterday in more detail. US equities strengthened to fresh highs, with the S&P 500 (+0.98%), Dow (+1.09%) and Nasdaq (0.49%) all firmly higher. Within the S&P, with the exception of the real estate sector, all other sectors were in the green. European markets were also all higher, with the Stoxx 600 and DAX up c0.6%, while the FTSE outperformed (+1.04%), boosted by Royal Dutch Shell, which rose c4% after restoring its practice of full cash dividends for the first time in more than two years. The VIX rose 1.6% to 10.03.

Government bonds were little changed. The UST 10y yield pared back minor gains to closed flat at 2.329% following broadly stronger US macro data. Elsewhere, core 10y European bond yields were little changed (Bunds & OATs -0.3bp; Gilts flat).

Turning to currencies, the US dollar index and Sterling gained 0.39% and 0.16% respectively, while the Euro fell (-0.49%) for the second consecutive day. In commodities, WTI oil fell 0.64% ahead of tomorrow’s OPEC meeting. Precious metals softened (Gold -0.04%; Silver -1.05%) and other base metals also weakened (Copper -1.08%; Zinc -0.68%; Aluminium -1.55%).

Away from the markets and over in Germany, the upcoming coalition talks between Ms Merkel and SPD may have hit a small obstacle. The acting agriculture minister Mr Schmidt has defied the SPD’s objections and unilaterally voted on Monday in favour of keeping one of the world’s widely used herbicides on EU markets for another five years. The SPD noted Mr Schmidt’s decision was a breach of trust. Ms Merkel was quick into damage control, noting “this was not in accord with the guidance…in the government” and it “is something that can’t be repeated”.

Staying in politics, over in the US, two top democratic leaders have pulled out of a scheduled meeting with President Trump to discuss the federal spending plan to prevent a partial government shutdown post funding expiring on December 8th. House minority leader Nancy Pelosi and Senate minority leader Chuck Schumer skipped the meeting in protest following Trump tweeted “meeting with Chuck and Nancy…problem is they want… I don’t see a deal!” ahead of their meeting. Notably, markets reactions have been fairly muted.

Finally, the l atest OECD semi-annual report suggests global economic growth will strengthen to 3.7% in 2018 before slowing to 3.6% in 2019. The softening from 2018 to 2019 is evident across most countries including US (-0.4ppt to 2.1%), China (-0.2ppt to 6.4%), the Euro area (-0.2ppt to 1.9%) and the UK (-0.1% to 1.1%). OECD’s Chief economist Ms Mann cautioned 2018 may be “the peak of the cycle” and that the “fiscal and monetary space are too limited to weather a financial downdraft”. Elsewhere, the report warned “financial asset prices are inconsistent with expectations for future growth and the policy stance, exacerbating the risks of financial corrections”.

Before we take a look at today’s calendar, we wrap up with other data releases from yesterday. In the US, the macro data was broadly above expectations. The November conference board consumer confidence reading rose to a fresh 17 year high of 129.5 (vs. 124 expected). In the details, the present situation index rose 1.9pts to 153.9 and the expectations index was up 4.3pts to 113.3. The Richmond Fed manufacturing index also beat at 30 (vs. 14 expected) – the highest since 1993, with sharp improvements seen across the shipments, new orders and employment indices. The September’s Corelogic House price index rose 0.5% mom (vs.0.3% expected), lifting annual growth to 6.2% yoy (vs. 6.04% expected). Elsewhere, the October advanced goods trade deficit was wider than expected at -$68.3bn (vs. -$64.9bln). Exports fell 1.0% mom and imports rose 1.5% mom, leading to annual growth of 5.5% yoy and 7.1% yoy respectively. Finally, October wholesale inventories fell 0.4% mom (vs. +0.4% expected), although the softness was partly due to a 0.2ppt downward revision in the prior month.

In France, the November consumer confidence was above market at 102 (vs. 101 expected), while Germany’s December GfK consumer confidence was in line at 10.7 and just below its recent 16 year high. Finally, the Eurozone’s October M3 money supply was a tad softer at 5.0% yoy (vs. 5.1% expected). After adjusting for sales and securitization, loans to households was steady at 2.7% yoy and  loans to corporates was up 2.9% yoy.

Looking at the day ahead, the main focus today will be Fed Chair Yellen’s testimony before the congressional Joint Economic Committee in Washington in the afternoon. Will she speak a little freer now her tenor is nearly over? As a team player that might a stretch too far. Also worth noting is a scheduled speech from the Fed’s Williams. Datawise in Europe the big focus will be on the flash November CPI report in Germany. In the US we’ll get the second reading of Q3 GDP and Core PCE. Also due out is Q3 GDP in France, October money and credit aggregates for the UK, November confidence indicators for the Euro area and October pending home sales for the US. The Fed’s Beige Book will also be out in the evening.