As was triumphantly announced over the weekend by both parties (making one wonder who actually benefited), after years of U.S. sanctions, Iran is now free to export as much of its oil as it wants after the International Atomic Energy Agency said the country had curbed its ability to develop a nuclear weapon leads to lifting of international sanctions. And while the end of sanctions also opens the door to foreign investors into country’s oil sector, most importantly it allows the country to flood the world with its oil. As a result the first thing the Iran oil ministry did today was to issue a notification order to boost oil production by 500k b/d.
Below, courtesy of Bloomberg, is a summary of the world's, and Wall Street's reactions, to the lifting of the Iran oil embargo.
IRAN SAYS:
- Iran beginning efforts to boost oil production, exports after removal of sanctions; targets increase in shipments of 500k b/d w/in mos.: Amir Hossein Zamaninia, deputy oil minister for commerce and international affairs
- Iran already selling more oil after sanctions lifted; ~1,000 lines of credit have been opened for banks, says President Hassan Rouhani
INTERNATIONAL RESPONSE:
- Iran deal paves way to closer energy cooperation w/ EU, will send 1st technical assessment mission on energy to Iran at the beginning of Feb., says EU Energy Commissioner Miguel Arias
- Potential areas for cooperation incl. nuclear energy, oil, gas, renewables, energy efficiency, electricity market
- Israel will monitor Iran for nuclear deal violations, says PM Benjamin Netanyahu
FOREIGN INVESTORS:
- Shell interested in developing Iran’s “energy potential,” monitoring developments w/ regard to settling outstanding debt to NICO “as soon as we are lawfully able to do so”
- Shell denies executives currently in Tehran for mtgs
- ABN Amro says Shell, Iran relationship “has been very good,” puts co. in position to be “prime partner” for Iran with lifting of sanctions; lifting of sanctions has neutral overall impact
TANKER NEWS:
- Iran oil tankers set sail under Lloyds insurance, Shana cites Ali-Akbar Safaei, MD of National Iranian Tanker Co.
- Iran oil tanker fleet yet to signal Europe as sanctions lifted: Bloomberg ship tracking
- Clarksons Platou says Iran return to mkts may boost VLCC rates by $10k-$15k/d; boosting exports to 1m b/d could lift fleet utilization of ~90% by 1 ppt
ANALYST VIEWS:
Morgan Stanley (analysts incl. Adam Longson)
- Iran oil output to rise ~600k b/d in 1H16, longer-term picture murkier given uncertain investment environment
Commerzbank head of commodities research Eugen Weinberg
- Prices to probably show “knee-jerk” reaction, dropping Monday before recovering to >$30/bbl later in wk
- “There is a real oversupply in the market, but I think that’s already reflected correctly in the price”
Qamar Energy CEO Robin Mills
- Iran oil “will have an immediate impact in the spot market”; “putting oil in the market is going to push it down”
- Iran can boost production, sales of ~600k b/d w/in 6 mos; can add 600k-800k b/d of output this yr
IHS analyst Victor Shum
- “Aggressive” increase in Iran crude exports could lead to “open market-share battle” w/ Saudi Arabia
- Nomura Holdings analyst Gordon Kwan
- Oil may drop to $25/bbl Monday on Iran sanctions relief as “additional crude shipments have the potential to further depress prices”
JBC Energy
- Iran crude exports seen increasing 450k b/d over 2016, w/ 185k b/d coming from floating storage; production will rise “by only 255k b/d over 2016 to 3.2m b/d”
- Expects “substantial increase” in exports in short term as Iran ships crude stored on tankers; does not think this sustainable; sees 14m bbl of crude, 35m bbl of condensate stored in tankers
Source: Bloomberg