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The Countries Most Affected by Trump’s Potential Immigration Policies
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A Trump victory in the upcoming presidential election would likely usher in more hardline and restrictive immigration policies in the United States.
During his administration, Trump tightened entry requirements for foreign-born workers, making it harder to obtain U.S. visas or refugee status. Under his leadership, there was a steady increase in H-1B visa denials.
Trump has also previously threatened to limit or halt remittances to a number of countries, including Mexico and Cuba. In terms of undocumented immigrants, the GOP’s platform pledges to “seal the border and stop the migrant invasion” and “carry out the largest deportation operation in American history”.
This infographic shows the 10 countries most exposed to potential immigration policy changes under a Trump presidency, based on The Economist’s Trump Risk Index immigration score.
About the Trump Risk Index
The Economist created the Trump Risk Index to assess the exposure and vulnerability of America’s 70 largest trading partners to potential policy changes if Trump is elected president. It was broken down into three sub-categories: trade, immigration, and security.
The Trump Risk Index immigration score uses various indicators, including the number of visas issued and a country’s reliance on U.S remittances, to measure various countries’ exposure to tighter immigration and border policy changes Trump would likely enact.
Higher exposure means a country has a higher number of visas issued and is more reliant on remittances from the U.S.
LatAm Countries Most Exposed to Immigration Policy Shifts
Below, we show the top 10 countries with the highest immigration exposure if Trump returns to office.
| Country | Trump Immigration Risk Score (0 = least exposure, 100 = most exposure) |
|---|---|
| El Salvador | 100 |
| Dominican Republic | 91.4 |
| Honduras | 72.4 |
| Guatemala | 59.7 |
| Mexico | 44.4 |
| Hong Kong | 37.9 |
| South Korea | 34.3 |
| Taiwan | 33.4 |
| Nicaragua | 33.2 |
| Singapore | 32.7 |
Remittance-reliant economies in Latin America, including El Salvador, the Dominican Republic, Honduras, Mexico, and Guatemala, are some of the most exposed countries to a potential Trump presidency in terms of immigration policy.
In 2023, Mexico received an estimated $67 billion from personal remittances, second to India.
In recent years, remittance payments from America made up 7% of the Dominican Republic’s GDP and 17.8% of Guatemala’s.
Countries with a high number of visa issuances are also particularly vulnerable, including Mexico, the top source of immigrants to the United States. In 2022, there were over 10 million Mexican immigrants living in the U.S.
Learn More on the Voronoi App
To learn more about this topic from a trade perspective, check out this graphic that shows the countries that would be affected the most by a change to the status quo.
The post The Countries Most Affected by Trump’s Potential Immigration Policies appeared first on Visual Capitalist.