From "the end of cash" to "Trump muzzling The Fed" to "Russia going on the warpath", Nomura unveils its unlikely-but-impactful grey swan scenarios for 2017...
As Nomura writes, while we would like to be able to predict black swans, by definition they are unpredictable. However, its close cousin, the grey swan, can be envisaged.
While the WaPo admitted, two weeks after its infamous hit piece on "fringe media" which it labelled as "Russian propaganda fake news", that its entire article was based on reporting that was wrong, the adverse consequences are piling up for the sites named in the list, among which the popular conservative hangout Breitbart. German carmaker BMW, the restaurant chain Vapiano, supermarket chain Rewe, and Deutsche Telekom have all pulled their ads from the pro-Trump news site due to concerns about its content, the Associated Press reported on Wednesday.
Having rallied into today's ECB meeting on hopes of geting more "whatever it takes" from Mario Draghi, his surprising tilt to the hawkish taper has sparked selling across European bond markets (pushing Bund yields to 11-month highs). EURUSD kneejerked higher on the statement but faded back quickly. Yield curves across Europe are also steepening dramatically and bank stocks are loving it.
EURUSD is sliding fast off kneejerk higher levels...
Bund yields are spiking...
Italian yields have spike to post-vote highs...
Some final thoughts on the imminent ECB announcement from Richard Breslow, former FX trader and fund manager who writes for Bloomberg
There are going to be two outcomes today stemming from the ECB meeting. We’ll learn what President Draghi has to say. And then what the market wants to hear. Not in terms of expectations, a la analyst previews, versus actual comments. But how portfolio managers choose to interpret his answers, no matter what he says. And it makes his task all the more tricky.
Submitted by Nick Giambruno via InternationalMan.com,
The next domino has fallen...
I recently spent several weeks in Italy, taking the pulse of the country. The Italian referendum on December 4 turned out exactly how I predicted it would.
The “No” vote won in a landslide, with 59% of the vote versus 41% for “Yes,” with a 70% turnout.
The pro-EU Prime Minister promptly announced his resignation after the crushing defeat.