Authored by Scott Kristoff via Avondale Asset Management,
We started this year with the economy deteriorating and finished it with the second interest rate increase in ten years. There were a lot of ups and downs along the way, but ultimately 2016 was defined by three key story-lines: 1) Brexit 2) The Presidential Election 3) Fed Policy.
Submitted by Jennifer Thomson via Gavekal Capital blog,
Submitted by Brendan Brown via The Mises Institute,
Markets have not been slow to see through the hollowness of the European Central Bank's announced (on December 8) curtailment of the pace of money printing planned for April next year. The ECB plans to reduce its “stimulus” from 80 billion euros per month down to 60 billion euros per month. But, it plans to do this for nine months before any further review — rather than the usual 6-month fixed period until further review.
The market is about to wake up to something bad.
That something is the fact that the $USD’s strength is going to crush corporate profits in 1Q17.
You see, companies begin to issue guidance for their results during the last week of the quarter. So the warnings are about to start hitting. Indeed, we’re already beginning to see this.
Safra Catz is CEO for Oracle, a $160 BILLION tech company. And she just issued a major warning of what's coming this way.
The key economic releases this week are durable goods and GDP on Thursday. Chair Yellen’s speech on the labor market on Monday afternoon is also likely to garner considerable attention. While the calendar gets quieter in the weeks ahead over the holiday season, there are a few notable macro events to keep traders occupied.
This week, the Bank of Japan and Riksbank deliver their latest policy verdicts, and we also get the RBA Minutes, while in the first week of the new year attention turns to FOMC Minutes and NFP, as well as Eurozone inflation.