Europe

Having rallied into today's ECB meeting on hopes of geting more "whatever it takes" from Mario Draghi, his surprising tilt to the hawkish taper has sparked selling across European bond markets (pushing Bund yields to 11-month highs). EURUSD kneejerked higher on the statement but faded back quickly. Yield curves across Europe are also steepening dramatically and bank stocks are loving it.

EURUSD is sliding fast off kneejerk higher levels...

Bund yields are spiking...

Italian yields have spike to post-vote highs...

Some final thoughts on the imminent ECB announcement from Richard Breslow, former FX trader and fund manager who writes for Bloomberg

There are going to be two outcomes today stemming from the ECB meeting. We’ll learn what President Draghi has to say. And then what the market wants to hear. Not in terms of expectations, a la analyst previews, versus actual comments. But how portfolio managers choose to interpret his answers, no matter what he says. And it makes his task all the more tricky.

Submitted by Nick Giambruno via InternationalMan.com,

The next domino has fallen...

I recently spent several weeks in Italy, taking the pulse of the country. The Italian referendum on December 4 turned out exactly how I predicted it would.

The “No” vote won in a landslide, with 59% of the vote versus 41% for “Yes,” with a 70% turnout.

The pro-EU Prime Minister promptly announced his resignation after the crushing defeat.

Blackrock's chief multi-asset strategist summed up tomorrow's anxiously awaited ECB meeting best by noting that "what’s priced into markets is a fully fledged extension of the [bond-buying] program," but warns that, thanks to a muted reaction to the Italy vote and recent encouraging data, "there’s a significant chance the ECB disappoints markets." As bond traders bet on a six-month QE extension, Citi warns, anything less will be seen as hawkish and send EUR surging.

Last night we reported that according to Reuters, with a private bailout off the table now that Italy is in political limbo, a nationalization in the form of a government debt-to-equity bailout of Monte Paschi was imminent, however there was a snag: political opposition from Brussels - which has insisted on a bail-in resolution mechanism instead of a bail out - could scuttle the transaction which is meant to make whole junior bondholders - mostly retail investors - courtesy of other taxpayers.