North Korea

On March 1, the WSJ reported that the options contemplated by the White House in response to recent North Korean acts, include "the possibility of both military force and regime change to counter the country’s nuclear-weapons threat." The review came es amid recent events have strained regional stability including last month's launch by North Korea of a ballistic missile into the Sea of Japan, and the assassination of the estranged half brother of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in Malaysia.

Authored by Marie DuMond via Beyond Parallel,

A Predata-Beyond Parallel prediction indicates there is a 43% chance of North Korean WMD activity taking place in the next 14 days. In the next 30 days, there is a 62% chance for North Korean WMD activity. Beyond Parallel defines WMD activity as nuclear tests and ballistic missile launches.

The U.S. military are preparing for a full military strike against North Korea in a move designed to wipe out Kim Jong-un’s full nuclear arsenal.  The announcement comes after North Korea threatened to strike US bases in Japan, firing three of its four missiles dangerously close to the U.S. ally. President Trump has warned that Pyongyang will suffer “very dire consequences” for its actions as a result, according to a White House statement.

Well that escalated quickly. Just a day after North Korea's test firing of 4 missiles towards US bases in Japan, and hours after North Korea warned the world was "on the brink of nuclear war" due to US-South Korea "maneuvers," CNN reports the first pieces of the controversial US-built missile defense system (designed to mitigate the threat of North Korean missiles) arrived at the Osan Air Base in South Korea Monday night, according to the US military.

Yesterday, when we discussed the NYT's report that the Obama administration had been waging a cyberwar against North Korea's missiles for at least three years, leading to frequent "unexplained" crashes just on or following launch, we concluded with a cautionary question "whether Kim Jong-Un, already facing a potential mutiny at home (to which he has so far responded by demonstratively executing official with anti-aircraft guns) will take this confirmation of what many would call an act of war by the US, and retaliate."