But, but, but... growth, and inflation, and supply cuts, and growth again...
Well that de-escalated quickly...
As Libya restarts exports and The Fed sends the dollar soaring so WTI crude prices just broke back to a $49 handle for the first time since Dec 8th.
Two days ago we reported that, after predicting back in September that "oil is not going above $55 for years", Dennis Gartman told clients to buy oil just as WTI was trading at.... $55. To wit:
There is seemingly no stopping the runaway train that is the economic momentum of the past month, as confirmed by the just released Philly and Empire Fed surveys, which printed at 21.5 and 9.0, smashing expectations of 9.1 and 4 respectively, in fact printing above the highest estimate for both reports, and well above the recent print of 7.6 and 1.5. The one blemish was the sharp drop in labor market conditions at the Empire Fed, which saw a big drop in both employment and hours worked.
Remember when everyone was excited about wage growth re-appearing and escape velocity, and textbook wage inflation appearing thanks to tight labor markets... well that's all gone! Average weekly earnings grew at just 0.5% YoY in November - the slowest pace of wage growth since July 2014.
In fact real average weekly earnings decline 0.4% in November MoM (despite the post-Trump exuberance)
Probably time for calls for $20 minimum wage.. or how about $30?
For the 13th straight month, core consumer prices have risen faster than the Fed's mandated 2% on a year-over-year basis. Headline CPI rose 1.7% YoY - the fastest pace of inflation since July 2014.
The CPI data met expectations across the board but the real cost of living - for those who prefer a roof over their head - is rising at the fastest pace since 2007.
Probably nothing though... "Transitory" is the term PhDs would probably use.