Business

Following Friday's report by RCB's Charlie McElligott which sought to answer "THE" question every investor is asking, namely "what could derail this rally", today's the cross-asset strategist has released a follow up analysis in which he warns that even though the bond battering continues - and is likely to continue for a while - the market is now being set up for a "massive mean-reversion" counter-trend rally as soon as January.

His arguments why are presented below:

The overnight exuberance in crude oil futures markets has faded notably as the day has worn on. While news of supply cuts are unquestionably bullish (should one choose to believe it or not, remember the Saudis admission "we tend to cheat"), but the last few days have also seen a plethora of bearish-biased news that for now is being ignored.

The excitement is fading...

Submitted by Howard Kunstler via Kunstler.com,

“Markets shrugged off the Brexit vote in a couple of days. They shrugged off Donald Trump’s election in a single day. They shrugged off the Italian referendum result in a couple of hours. Heck, in this mood they would shrug off an alien invasion of planet Earth.”

— Albert Edwards, Société Générale

In August of 2014, amid tapering QE and talk of normalization, speculators in the world's most liquid money-market instruments went all-in with record bearish bets on eurodollar futures. They were wrong and the short-squeeze sparked a slow-motion flash-crash in bond yields (10Y from 2.65% to 1.86% in a month).

Today, as we await words, smoke, and mirrors from Janet tomorrow, the world's speculators are even more all-in...