Submitted by Anatole Kaletsky, originally posted at Project Syndicate,
For the first time since last October, the price of a barrel of oil has broken through $50. So it seems a good time to update the analysis I presented in January 2015.
When it comes to the stock market, there is no single greater observable divergence right now than that between GAAP and non-GAAP earnings. As the chart below shows, while on a non-GAAP basis earnings have been hurting in recent years, with the LTM EPS of the S&P has declined to 116.4, down from 118.1 as of December 31, 2014, the real surprise is in GAAP EPS, which are back down to 88, a level last seen in 2007 when the market was about 500 points lower.
One of the recurring concerns voiced by Bank of America's Michael Hartnett is that with May now in the rearview mirror, we are entering "the event risk month" of June (incidentally, over the weekend, the credit strategist presented several ideas how to trade said event risk, either bullish or bearish). Now it is UBS' turn to reiterate the warning that June may see a spike in volatility due to "an unusual number of known unknowns."
By EconMatters
We compare Germany and South Korea`s Business Development Strategy versus the United States - and how important top down leadership is in cultivating a strategic vision for a country`s growth prospects.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OarTHAi77F4
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Grant Williams, strategy advisor to Vulpes Investment Management and co-founder of Real Vision Television is always worth the read or listen, and he sat down for an interview during his time at this year's Mauldin Strategic Investment Conference to discuss his views on gold, and why physical cash is being eliminated.
On the subject of gold, Williams is very quick to point out that he doesn't buy gold for the price, he owns it for what it does. He goes on to say that once people realize the value of owning physical gold, ETF's will no longer be what investors want to own.