Two weeks ago, when discussing a recent Albert Edwards piece, we said that the word that has come to define the new normal better than all others, is "paradox", as in nothing makes sense, or rather everything makes sense if one only flips logic and reason 180 degrees.
While the Fed Board of Governors continues with its “we don’t see inflation anywhere” shtick, one of its own in-house measures (the underlying inflation gauge or UIG) is about to hit 3%.
The UIG estimated on the “full data set” increased from a revised 2.91% in October to 2.95% in November.
Source: the NY Fed.
Authored by Nick Cunningham via OilPrice.com,
Last week, the International Energy Agency made a lot of OPEC brows furrow when it warned that 2018 may not be a very happy new year for the cartel.
U.S. shale supply, the IEA said in its December Oil Market Report, is set to grow more than OPEC has estimated and this could be the undoing of the production cut that boosted prices this year.
Perhaps it is recency bias playing its tricks, but Treasury and Bund yields curves are steepening dramatically for the second day in a row, this time dragged higher by comments on longer-term issuance plans from Germany.
As always, German and US yield curves are moving in sync with a notable steepening again - the biggest 2-day steepening since Trump was elected.
Barring some unforeseen catastrophe (or another floor-vote surprise akin to Sen. John McCain’s last minute decision to strike down the Senate’s plan to repeal and replace Obamacare), Congressional Republicans appear all but certain to pass the reconciled version of President Donald Trump’s tax-cut plan - the first time Congress has successfully passed comprehensive tax reform since 1986.